Providence Friars

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Nebraska · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ET

Providence21%79%Nebraska

Projected 72-82 · Game page

Makes the tournament20%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-16

Net rating+11.8Rank 66 of 365 · offence 69, defence 65

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (11 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-12
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 7.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field20%
Round of 3210%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Mainerank 340	Home	98%	81-55	W 83-56	Right
Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET	vs Nebraskarank 15	Neutral	21%	72-82	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Bryantrank 316	Home	99%	88-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 20% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs NebraskaA win: 27% · a loss: 18%+9 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs BryantA win: 20% · a loss: 19%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gavin HightowerG · transfer from South Florida	1	30.0	5.0	3.0	7.0	+2.4	+2.5
Malik MackG · transfer from Georgetown	1	27.0	12.0	5.0	2.0	+2.6	+2.3
Miles ByrdG · transfer from San Diego St	1	25.0	10.0	5.0	3.0	+5.2	+3.3
Jacob BannarbieF · transfer from UNLV	1	25.0	14.0	10.0	1.0	+1.9	+1.8
Leonardo MarangonF	1	23.0	7.0	3.0	3.0	−0.6	+0.6
Ryan MelaG	1	20.0	13.0	6.0	2.0	+3.3	+1.9
Ryan SabolG · transfer from Buffalo	1	15.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.6	+1.0
Javon BardwellF	1	14.0	12.0	3.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.4
Elijah SaundersF · transfer from Maryland	1	7.0	8.0	1.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.5
Arrinten PageF · transfer from Northwestern	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+6.2	+1.1
Samson AletanC · transfer from Yale	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+3.6	+0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.0%rank 250	50.3%rank 139	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.8%rank 49	20.5%rank 10	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.5%rank 79	30.9%rank 83	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.9%rank 334	27.9%rank 342	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.7 points a game (they shot 34.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.9
Last season's net rating: +11.8
Last season's minutes returning: 13%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.8
Change since preseason: +0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.4 (rank 69)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.7 (rank 65)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 28)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.4 (rank 269)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84