Georgetown Hoyas

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Maryland · Sat 7 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Maryland49%51%Georgetown

Projected 74-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 17-16

Net rating+10.9Rank 71 of 365 · offence 82, defence 57

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (12 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-12
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 8.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 327%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Loyola Marylandrank 322	Home	96%	79-57	W 80-58	Right
Sat 7 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Marylandrank 43	Home	51%	74-74	—
Tue 10 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Delaware Staterank 353	Home	99%	85-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs MarylandA win: 17% · a loss: 13%+4 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Delaware StateA win: 15% · a loss: 17%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jaland LoweG · transfer from Kentucky	1	34.0	23.0	2.0	2.0	+2.5	+2.7
Elmarko JacksonG · transfer from Kansas	1	26.0	14.0	3.0	3.0	+2.9	+2.3
Kayvaun MulreadyG	1	26.0	2.0	5.0	4.0	+2.1	+1.9
Caleb WilliamsF	1	24.0	6.0	3.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.5
Vince IwuchukwuC	1	23.0	21.0	9.0	0.0	+4.3	+2.6
Josiah ParkerF · transfer from FAU	1	22.0	2.0	6.0	3.0	+2.4	+1.8
Gabriel LandeiraG	1	16.0	0.0	2.0	4.0	−0.7	+0.4
Chol MachotC · transfer from Charleston	1	13.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	+3.6	+1.3
Pedro PastreF	1	5.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.1
Seal DioufC	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.1
Justin CaldwellF	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.1
Michael Van RaaphorstG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.1
Mason MosesG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.1
Athan Olivier IVG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.3	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.7%rank 273	50.5%rank 241	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 57	18.5%rank 218	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.9%rank 276	32.0%rank 258	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.4%rank 271	21.4%rank 2	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.9 points a game (they shot 35.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +9.4
Last season's net rating: +9.3
Last season's minutes returning: 31%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.3
Change since preseason: +1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.9 (rank 82)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.0 (rank 57)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 279)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.4 (rank 255)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84