Xavier Musketeers

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs E Michigan · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

E Michigan2%98%Xavier

Projected 89-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament63%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.4

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 2% · projected 22-12

Net rating+18.2Rank 33 of 365 · offence 42, defence 29

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (17 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 12%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 6.4
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field63%
Round of 3243%
Sweet 1617%
Elite Eight6%
Final Four2%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Mount St. Mary'srank 286	Home	98%	82-57	W 97-52	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Eastern Michiganrank 225	Home	98%	89-64	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Detroit Mercyrank 233	Home	98%	91-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 63% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Eastern MichiganA win: 63% · a loss: 60%+3 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Detroit MercyA win: 63% · a loss: 65%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Filip BorovicaninF	1	24.0	8.0	7.0	6.0	+4.1	+2.7
Tru WashingtonG · transfer from Miami	1	22.0	10.0	7.0	3.0	+5.5	+3.0
Jovan MilicevicF	1	21.0	14.0	4.0	2.0	+3.0	+1.9
Chance WestryG · transfer from UAB	1	19.0	17.0	1.0	2.0	+4.9	+2.4
Ruben DominguezG · transfer from Texas A&M	1	19.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	+4.6	+2.3
Nikos ChitikoudisF · transfer from Robert Morris	1	18.0	4.0	11.0	0.0	+3.6	+1.9
Rolyns AligbeF · transfer from S Illinois	1	18.0	7.0	4.0	0.0	+4.1	+2.0
Mike NwokoF · transfer from LSU	1	16.0	10.0	4.0	4.0	+6.6	+2.5
Kalek HouseG	1	16.0	5.0	2.0	6.0	+0.4	+0.7
Gabriel PozzatoF	1	15.0	8.0	1.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.7
Kason WestphalC	1	5.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.2
Michael WolfG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1
Henry TholeF	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1
Gedeon BassonG	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.1
Harrison AligbeF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.9%rank 106	48.0%rank 11	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.5%rank 331	19.0%rank 77	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.9%rank 24	31.0%rank 95	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.1%rank 283	24.3%rank 92	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +16.2 points a game (they shot 11.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.0
Last season's net rating: +7.4
Last season's minutes returning: 29%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.3
Change since preseason: +2.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.1 (rank 42)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.0 (rank 29)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.3 (rank 17)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.6 (rank 223)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84