Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16
Net rating−12.6Rank 286 of 365 · offence 324, defence 206
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-16 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Xavierrank 33 | Away | 2% | 57-82 | L 52-97 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Loyola Marylandrank 322 | Home | 71% | 76-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Loyola MarylandA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilguens Jr. ExacteF · transfer from Drake | 1 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Redd Thompson Jr.G · transfer from Longwood | 1 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| Abdou Khadre KebeG | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Anthony Arrington Jr.G | 1 | 24.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −4.9 | −1.2 |
| Anastasios RozakeasG | 1 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.9 | −0.6 |
| Cade OrnessG · transfer from Gonzaga | 1 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| Julien SmithG | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Noah LimolF | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Crue GardF | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Miquel LlompartG | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Ryan BrzezanskiF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Jaxon HartmanG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Noah RogersG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.0%rank 356 | 50.9%rank 259 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.0%rank 283 | 19.5%rank 35 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.0%rank 272 | 33.9%rank 343 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.3%rank 273 | 24.1%rank 83 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.9 points a game (they shot 35.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.4
- Last season's net rating
- −9.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 33%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.0
- Change since preseason
- −2.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.5 (rank 324)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.0 (rank 206)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.9 (rank 116)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +18.2 (rank 32)
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 100.8 | 109.9 | 247 |
| 2 | Siena | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 98.9 | 108.2 | 249 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.3 | 108.8 | 251 |
| 4 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 98.0 | 108.5 | 260 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.4 | 95.0 | 106.5 | 277 |
| 6 | Sacred Heart | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 99.1 | 111.6 | 285 |
| 7 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 95.5 | 108.0 | 286 |
| 8 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 94.7 | 107.5 | 290 |
| 9 | Iona | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 95.2 | 108.3 | 294 |
| 10 | Manhattan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 98.6 | 112.7 | 306 |
| 11 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −21.4 | 92.4 | 113.8 | 354 |
| 12 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.4 | 91.0 | 113.5 | 358 |
| 13 | Canisius | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.9 | 93.2 | 117.1 | 363 |