Marist Red Foxes
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16
Net rating−11.5Rank 277 of 365 · offence 336, defence 166
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-16 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 13%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs UMBCA win: 9% · a loss: 10%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at UMass LowellA win: 9% · a loss: 10%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadin Collins-RobertsG | 1 | 35.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Dywane ChessG | 1 | 30.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Jack GrahamG · transfer from New Hampshire | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.7 | −0.8 |
| Myles ParkerF | 1 | 24.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Jordan GabrielC | 1 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Edward OnyiaF | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Brady MacAdamsG | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Tarik WatsonC | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Brandon ArnoldG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Cameron SweeneyG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.9%rank 325 | 51.6%rank 303 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.2%rank 349 | 18.9%rank 100 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.8%rank 341 | 32.2%rank 262 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.6%rank 31 | 25.6%rank 256 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.2 points a game (they shot 32.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.1
- Last season's net rating
- −1.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 27%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.6
- Change since preseason
- −3.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.1 (rank 336)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.5 (rank 166)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.7 (rank 262)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.4 (rank 152)
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 100.8 | 110.0 | 247 |
| 2 | Siena | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 98.9 | 108.2 | 249 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.4 | 108.9 | 251 |
| 4 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 98.0 | 108.5 | 262 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 95.1 | 106.5 | 277 |
| 6 | Sacred Heart | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 99.1 | 111.7 | 285 |
| 7 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 95.5 | 108.1 | 286 |
| 8 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 94.8 | 107.5 | 290 |
| 9 | Iona | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 95.2 | 108.4 | 294 |
| 10 | Manhattan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 98.7 | 112.8 | 306 |
| 11 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −21.4 | 92.4 | 113.8 | 354 |
| 12 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.4 | 91.1 | 113.5 | 358 |
| 13 | Canisius | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.9 | 93.2 | 117.1 | 363 |