Niagara Purple Eagles
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-22
Net rating−22.4Rank 358 of 365 · offence 363, defence 336
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 10-22 (5 to 15 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at West Virginiarank 38 | Away | 1% | 49-76 | L 46-91 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov6:30 PM ET | vs Morgan Staterank 360 | Home | 64% | 75-70 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | at Bowling Greenrank 182 | Away | 6% | 62-80 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Morgan StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Bowling GreenA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien RieberG · transfer from Fresno St | 1 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −4.9 | −1.4 |
| Logan WoodsG · transfer from Wright St | 1 | 27.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −3.8 | −0.8 |
| Ruey RueyG | 1 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −1.0 |
| Cole FarrellG · transfer from Long Beach St | 1 | 24.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −5.0 | −1.2 |
| Trenton WaltersG | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −5.9 | −1.2 |
| Fidel RottaF | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | −0.5 |
| Samuele MiccoliG | 1 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.5 |
| Tae BlackshearG · transfer from Youngstown St | 1 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.5 |
| Daniel EmokhareF | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.4 |
| Vukasin TodorovicF · transfer from Green Bay | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.1 | −0.5 |
| Brian AngelettiF | 1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.2 |
| Gael DalmauG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −6.9 | −0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.2%rank 81 | 51.7%rank 314 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.6%rank 360 | 18.0%rank 296 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 27.8%rank 364 | 30.1%rank 35 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.2%rank 352 | 24.3%rank 88 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −9.9 points a game (they shot 43.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −18.8
- Last season's net rating
- −18.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 10%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.7
- Change since preseason
- −3.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 91.1 (rank 363)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 113.5 (rank 336)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.6 (rank 351)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +16.8 (rank 37)
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 100.8 | 110.0 | 247 |
| 2 | Siena | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 98.9 | 108.2 | 249 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.4 | 108.9 | 251 |
| 4 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 98.0 | 108.5 | 262 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 95.1 | 106.5 | 277 |
| 6 | Sacred Heart | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 99.1 | 111.7 | 285 |
| 7 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 95.5 | 108.1 | 286 |
| 8 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 94.8 | 107.5 | 290 |
| 9 | Iona | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 95.2 | 108.4 | 294 |
| 10 | Manhattan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 98.7 | 112.8 | 306 |
| 11 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −21.4 | 92.4 | 113.8 | 354 |
| 12 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.4 | 91.1 | 113.5 | 358 |
| 13 | Canisius | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.9 | 93.2 | 117.1 | 363 |