Morgan State Bears
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-20
Net rating−22.6Rank 360 of 365 · offence 348, defence 358
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 10-20 (5 to 15 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith RichardG | 2 | 27.0 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | −3.7 | −0.8 |
| John AwokeG · transfer from Wagner | 2 | 23.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | −4.9 | −1.2 |
| Ibrahima TraoreF · transfer from Utah | 2 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −3.4 | −0.5 |
| Alfred Worrell Jr.G | 2 | 20.5 | 23.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | −3.6 | −0.6 |
| Trent EdwardsF | 2 | 18.0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | −6.7 | −1.5 |
| Jeremiah KwartengG | 2 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | −3.3 | −0.4 |
| Trey PettigrewF | 2 | 14.5 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −3.1 | −0.3 |
| Matar WadeF | 2 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | −6.6 | −0.9 |
| Khali HortonF · transfer from Coppin St | 2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | −6.0 | −0.7 |
| Darian GrantG | 2 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
| Manok LualF | 2 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −6.8 | −0.8 |
| Breon BarnettG | 2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −7.1 | −0.6 |
| Oliver SpenceF | 2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| David BumpassG | 2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −6.2 | −0.5 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 156 | 18.6%rank 134 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 128 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 131 | 25.2%rank 153 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −22.6
- Last season's net rating
- −22.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 23%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.4
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 93.6 (rank 348)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 116.3 (rank 358)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.8 (rank 38)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howard | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 100.9 | 107.5 | 210 |
| 2 | Norfolk State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −16.2 | 96.2 | 112.4 | 330 |
| 3 | Maryland Eastern Shore | 0-2 | 0-0 | −18.1 | 91.5 | 109.6 | 337 |
| 4 | South Carolina State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.5 | 94.2 | 112.7 | 341 |
| 5 | North Carolina Central | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.1 | 92.8 | 113.0 | 350 |
| 6 | Delaware State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.2 | 91.8 | 113.0 | 353 |
| 7 | Morgan State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −22.6 | 93.6 | 116.3 | 360 |
| 8 | Coppin State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.5 | 90.1 | 113.6 | 362 |