UMBC Retrievers
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−15.0Rank 312 of 365 · offence 310, defence 308
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (11 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 15%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at George Masonrank 91 | Away | 8% | 57-75 | L 54-82 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Maristrank 277 | Away | 28% | 67-74 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov6 PM ET | vs McDanielnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET | vs Morgan Staterank 360 | Home | 80% | 80-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at MaristA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Morgan StateA win: 12% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan AbleG | 1 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| Carlos VarelaG | 1 | 29.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Flash BurtonG · transfer from Rider | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −3.9 | −0.9 |
| Devin CeaserG | 1 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.1 | −0.8 |
| Jovan RisticG | 1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Riley JacobsF | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| JP NdongF | 1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Steven HuanF | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Jaiden ReynoldsG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Alpha BarryF | 1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.2%rank 348 | 49.0%rank 49 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.8%rank 50 | 18.2%rank 258 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.9%rank 118 | 32.6%rank 292 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.7%rank 342 | 24.5%rank 106 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.1 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.9
- Last season's net rating
- −1.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 8%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.7
- Change since preseason
- −2.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.4 (rank 310)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.4 (rank 308)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.1 (rank 219)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +7.4 (rank 88)
America East Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 96.8 | 107.6 | 267 |
| 2 | UMBC | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.0 | 96.4 | 111.4 | 312 |
| 3 | Bryant | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 95.4 | 110.7 | 316 |
| 4 | UMass Lowell | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 97.4 | 112.7 | 317 |
| 5 | New Hampshire | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 93.9 | 109.2 | 320 |
| 6 | UAlbany | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 97.1 | 112.7 | 323 |
| 7 | Maine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 91.9 | 110.3 | 340 |
| 8 | Binghamton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 96.2 | 115.7 | 344 |
| 9 | NJIT | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.1 | 94.4 | 114.5 | 349 |