Vermont Catamounts

Men's · America East Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Quinnipiac · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Quinnipiac33%67%Vermont

Projected 73-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament27%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14

Net rating−8.9Rank 242 of 365 · offence 259, defence 215

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-14 (14 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 41%
Wins the conference tournament: 27%
Average seed if in the field: 15.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field27%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Ionarank 255	Away	35%	63-68	L 55-56	Right
Thu 5 Nov	at Fairfieldrank 271	Away	33%	68-74	W 79-67	Wrong
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Quinnipiacrank 264	Home	67%	73-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 27% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs QuinnipiacA win: 28% · a loss: 26%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
John BroomG · transfer from South Alabama	2	32.5	9.5	8.5	0.0	−2.4	−0.2
Will DaviesG	2	32.5	15.5	5.5	5.0	−2.0	0.0
Gus YaldenF	2	27.5	14.5	5.0	1.5	+1.4	+1.6
Darrel YepdoG · transfer from UMass Lowell	2	27.0	8.0	4.0	1.5	−3.8	−0.8
Noah BarnettF	2	22.5	4.0	3.5	0.5	−1.3	+0.3
Momo NkugwaG	2	20.0	11.0	4.5	0.0	−1.9	+0.1
Khalil BadruG · transfer from Iona	2	18.5	1.5	3.5	1.0	−1.5	+0.2
Daniil GlazkovG · transfer from Loyola Chicago	2	15.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−3.1	−0.3
Sublime GbiegbaF	1	9.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.2%rank 29	46.8%rank 2	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.2%rank 307	18.4%rank 223	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.5%rank 13	30.2%rank 42	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.1%rank 295	22.6%rank 13	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.5 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −12.6
Last season's net rating: −5.1
Last season's minutes returning: 27%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.2
Change since preseason: +3.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 99.2 (rank 259)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.1 (rank 215)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.2 (rank 356)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.7 (rank 213)

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	1-1	0-0	−8.9	99.2	108.1	242
2	UMass Lowell	2-0	0-0	−12.8	98.9	111.7	289
3	UAlbany	2-0	0-0	−13.1	98.7	111.8	293
4	Bryant	1-1	0-0	−14.0	94.3	108.3	303
5	New Hampshire	2-0	0-0	−14.4	93.6	108.0	308
6	UMBC	0-2	0-0	−15.2	97.0	112.2	316
7	Binghamton	1-1	0-0	−16.8	97.0	113.8	330
8	Maine	1-1	0-0	−17.9	92.2	110.1	336
9	NJIT	0-2	0-0	−22.5	92.3	114.8	359