UAlbany Great Danes

Men's · America East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Manhattan · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

UAlbany33%67%Manhattan

Projected 71-77 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−15.6Rank 323 of 365 · offence 303, defence 326

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (9 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 15.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Rhode Island Collegenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 74-67
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Manhattanrank 306	Away	33%	71-77	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Merrimackrank 262	Home	51%	70-70	—
Wed 11 Nov1 PM ET	vs Dartmouthrank 177	Home	36%	70-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at ManhattanA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs MerrimackA win: 11% · a loss: 12%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs DartmouthA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ollie EngenG	1	35.0	25.0	5.0	6.0	−2.7	−0.4
Zacharie MatuluG	1	33.0	5.0	10.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.8
Tyler JonesG	1	29.0	16.0	4.0	2.0	−2.6	−0.3
Miles RoseG	1	23.0	0.0	4.0	2.0	−5.7	−1.4
U-Mier GrahamF	1	21.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−2.5	−0.2
Erwann BussingF	1	19.0	10.0	6.0	0.0	−2.4	−0.1
Kean WebbC · transfer from Portland St	1	14.0	4.0	6.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.2
Abdoulaye FallG	1	8.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−4.9	−0.4
Papa KountaG	1	8.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Moustapha NdaoG	1	6.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Wilkin PaulinoG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.6
Last season's net rating: −14.9
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 97.1 (rank 303)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.7 (rank 326)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.3 (rank 297)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	0-1	0-0	−10.8	96.9	107.6	267
2	UMBC	0-1	0-0	−15.0	96.5	111.4	313
3	Bryant	1-0	0-0	−15.2	95.5	110.7	317
4	UMass Lowell	1-0	0-0	−15.3	97.4	112.7	319
5	New Hampshire	1-0	0-0	−15.3	94.0	109.3	320
6	UAlbany	1-0	0-0	−15.6	97.1	112.7	323
7	Maine	0-1	0-0	−18.4	92.0	110.4	339
8	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−19.4	96.3	115.7	344
9	NJIT	0-1	0-0	−20.1	94.5	114.5	349