Manhattan Jaspers

Men's · Metro Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs UAlbany · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

UAlbany33%67%Manhattan

Projected 77-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−14.1Rank 306 of 365 · offence 277, defence 329

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 15.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Kentuckyrank 23	Away	0%	59-94	L 57-85	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs UAlbanyrank 323	Home	67%	77-71	Live
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Mainerank 340	Away	47%	71-72	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs UAlbanyA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at MaineA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ben PearceG	1	30.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.5
Novak ManojlovicF	1	22.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.3
Ben TweedyG · transfer from Colgate	1	21.0	9.0	1.0	3.0	−2.9	−0.3
Ognjen StankovicF · transfer from Akron	1	20.0	0.0	6.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.4
Isaac JohnsonF	1	19.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.2
Kevin KearneyF · transfer from Saint Joseph's	1	18.0	11.0	3.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.3
Josiah SabinoG · transfer from Niagara	1	17.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−2.9	−0.3
Quron ElliottG	1	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−5.7	−0.8
Anthony PacciarelliG	1	13.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.1
Liam McChesneyF · transfer from Creighton	1	11.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
Asier MiguelG	1	6.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−5.4	−0.3
Jahzar GreeneG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Dusan EricF	1	4.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Jackson DelaneyG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−5.9	−0.1
DaSean LewisG	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.9%rank 262	51.7%rank 315	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 131	19.4%rank 39	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.3%rank 91	33.7%rank 340	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 128	22.9%rank 26	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.9 points a game (they shot 38.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.4
Last season's net rating: −17.2
Last season's minutes returning: 7%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.4
Change since preseason: +1.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.6 (rank 277)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.7 (rank 329)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 219)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +20.9 (rank 21)

Metro Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Fairfield	0-0	0-0	−9.2	100.8	109.9	247
2	Siena	0-1	0-0	−9.3	98.9	108.2	249
3	Quinnipiac	0-1	0-0	−9.5	99.3	108.8	251
4	Merrimack	0-1	0-0	−10.6	98.0	108.5	260
5	Marist	0-1	0-0	−11.4	95.0	106.5	277
6	Sacred Heart	1-0	0-0	−12.5	99.1	111.6	285
7	Mount St. Mary's	0-1	0-0	−12.6	95.5	108.0	286
8	Saint Peter's	0-1	0-0	−12.8	94.7	107.5	290
9	Iona	1-0	0-0	−13.2	95.2	108.3	294
10	Manhattan	0-1	0-0	−14.1	98.6	112.7	306
11	Rider	0-1	0-0	−21.4	92.4	113.8	354
12	Niagara	0-1	0-0	−22.4	91.0	113.5	358
13	Canisius	0-1	0-0	−23.9	93.2	117.1	363