Maine Black Bears
Next: at Sacred Heart · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 67-76 · Game page
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-21
Net rating−18.4Rank 339 of 365 · offence 360, defence 279
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-21 (7 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Providencerank 66 | Away | 2% | 55-81 | L 56-83 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Sacred Heartrank 285 | Away | 24% | 67-76 | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | vs Manhattanrank 306 | Home | 53% | 72-71 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Rhode Islandrank 94 | Away | 2% | 59-82 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Sacred HeartA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs ManhattanA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Rhode IslandA win: 8% · a loss: 6%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre WilliamsG · transfer from Holy Cross | 1 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −4.1 | −1.0 |
| Ace FlaggF | 1 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | −0.9 |
| Hudson FranzG | 1 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Ayden EvansF · transfer from Ohio | 1 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.4 |
| Killian GribbenF | 1 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −5.6 | −1.2 |
| Villiam Garcia AdstenG · transfer from Drexel | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| Yanis BambaF | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −5.1 | −0.9 |
| Darius LopesG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Caleb CrawfordG | 1 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.8 | −0.7 |
| Wesley WaddlesF | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Wyatt TriestmanF | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.3%rank 224 | 49.9%rank 111 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.5%rank 356 | 17.8%rank 318 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.9%rank 282 | 32.6%rank 283 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.9%rank 26 | 23.0%rank 28 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.9 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −17.6
- Last season's net rating
- −19.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 27%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.4
- Change since preseason
- −0.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 92.0 (rank 360)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.4 (rank 279)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.2 (rank 310)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +11.8 (rank 66)
America East Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 96.9 | 107.6 | 267 |
| 2 | UMBC | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.0 | 96.5 | 111.4 | 312 |
| 3 | Bryant | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 95.5 | 110.7 | 316 |
| 4 | UMass Lowell | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 97.4 | 112.7 | 319 |
| 5 | New Hampshire | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 94.0 | 109.2 | 320 |
| 6 | UAlbany | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 97.1 | 112.7 | 323 |
| 7 | Maine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 92.0 | 110.4 | 339 |
| 8 | Binghamton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.4 | 96.3 | 115.7 | 344 |
| 9 | NJIT | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.1 | 94.5 | 114.5 | 349 |