Rhode Island Rams

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Monmouth · Sat 7 Nov, 4 PM ET

Monmouth25%75%Rhode Island

Projected 77-69 · Game page

Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 23-10

Net rating+6.8Rank 93 of 365 · offence 93, defence 96

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 11.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field13%
Round of 323%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Holy Crossrank 348	Home	90%	80-65	W 103-59	Right
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	vs Monmouthrank 164	Neutral	75%	77-69	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Mainerank 339	Home	98%	82-58	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Maryland Eastern Shorerank 337	Home	98%	81-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 13% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs MonmouthA win: 13% · a loss: 13%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs MaineA win: 13% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Maryland Eastern ShoreA win: 13% · a loss: 12%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jahmere TrippG	1	26.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	+3.5	+2.6
Jonah HintonG	1	26.0	24.0	0.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.7
Dylan WilliamsonG · transfer from Towson	1	23.0	8.0	3.0	4.0	+2.0	+1.6
Matas DeniusasF · transfer from UT Martin	1	23.0	13.0	8.0	0.0	+2.8	+2.0
Jason Fontenet IIG · transfer from Santa Barbara	1	21.0	11.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	+0.8
Barrett LoerG	1	17.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.7
Jaen ChatmanG	1	17.0	6.0	3.0	3.0	+0.5	+0.8
Nedas RaupelisF	1	15.0	9.0	5.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.7
Jalen HarperG	1	14.0	11.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+0.5
Javon PerryF	1	14.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.7
Tim Martin IIF	1	2.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1
Jaymien AponteG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1
Steven ShermanG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.0%rank 44	50.3%rank 144	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.0%rank 12	18.7%rank 117	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.1%rank 260	30.1%rank 33	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.6%rank 249	24.6%rank 113	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.3 points a game (they shot 30.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +0.8
Last season's net rating: +3.3
Last season's minutes returning: 31%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: +6.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.5 (rank 93)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.7 (rank 96)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 243)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −20.0 (rank 275)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	89
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	91
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.7	93
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	96
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	105
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.3	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.2	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.7	103.6	105.3	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.4	185
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.1	199