Saint Louis Billikens
Makes the tournament51%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.8
Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 26-7
Net rating+14.2Rank 56 of 365 · offence 35, defence 81
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 26-7 (21 to 31 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 14-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 47%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 30%
- Average seed if in the field
- 9.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field51%
- Round of 3220%
- Sweet 164%
- Elite Eight1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion<1%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Lehighrank 234 | Home | 96% | 81-59 | W 92-67 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Missourirank 30 | Neutral | 34% | 78-82 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs Northern Kentuckyrank 176 | Home | 95% | 93-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs MissouriA win: 58% · a loss: 48%+10 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Northern KentuckyA win: 51% · a loss: 49%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin JonesG | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | +3.1 | +2.6 |
| Trey GreenG | 1 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | +4.2 | +2.8 |
| Kellen ThamesG | 1 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +7.1 | +3.5 |
| Ishan SharmaF | 1 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +3.7 | +2.2 |
| Amari McCottryG | 1 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +4.9 | +2.3 |
| Alon MichaeliF · transfer from Colorado | 1 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +1.9 | +1.2 |
| Jax KerrF | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | +2.1 | +1.2 |
| Luke LaczkowskiG | 1 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Cam HutsonG | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Sheek PearsonF | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Elijah StrongF · transfer from South Carolina | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +2.5 | +0.6 |
| Badara DiakiteF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Yousaf AhmadG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 |
| Jermel ThomasG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | 0.0 |
| Jamison WhiteF | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.3%rank 33 | 49.6%rank 80 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 101 | 17.8%rank 316 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.8%rank 343 | 31.0%rank 94 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.9%rank 94 | 27.4%rank 322 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +11.2 points a game (they shot 18.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +14.7
- Last season's net rating
- +22.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 59%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.5
- Change since preseason
- −0.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 114.7 (rank 35)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.5 (rank 81)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 25)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −8.1 (rank 193)
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Louis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +14.2 | 114.7 | 100.5 | 56 |
| 2 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.8 | 113.2 | 100.3 | 60 |
| 3 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.4 | 107.1 | 99.7 | 88 |
| 4 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.2 | 106.1 | 98.9 | 90 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.8 | 108.6 | 101.7 | 92 |
| 6 | Dayton | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.4 | 109.2 | 102.8 | 96 |
| 7 | Davidson | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 107.1 | 102.1 | 105 |
| 8 | Duquesne | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 105.5 | 102.7 | 116 |
| 9 | Saint Joseph's | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 104.7 | 103.3 | 122 |
| 10 | Fordham | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 103.7 | 104.0 | 128 |
| 11 | Richmond | 2-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 105.8 | 106.9 | 136 |
| 12 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 103.7 | 105.3 | 142 |
| 13 | St. Bonaventure | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 102.5 | 107.4 | 183 |
| 14 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 101.0 | 107.1 | 200 |