Duquesne Dukes
Next: vs Central State · Sat 7 Nov, 7:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-12
Net rating+2.8Rank 116 of 365 · offence 127, defence 105
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-12 (16 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs Purdue Fort Waynerank 230 | Home | 82% | 81-70 | W 78-71 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Central Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs Washington Staterank 173 | Home | 80% | 79-69 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Washington StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem KonanF · transfer from Creighton | 1 | 33.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| Yoav BermanF · transfer from Queens | 1 | 31.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
| Izaiah PashaG · transfer from Virginia Tech | 1 | 30.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +1.6 |
| Arness LawsonG | 1 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.7 |
| Ege DemirC · transfer from Oregon | 1 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 |
| Josh SmithG · transfer from West Georgia | 1 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Jake DiMicheleG | 1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| Jackson WilliamsG | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 |
| Stephen OlowoniyiF · transfer from Oregon St | 1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.7%rank 114 | 51.2%rank 283 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.4%rank 325 | 18.3%rank 240 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.1%rank 258 | 31.3%rank 122 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 229 | 24.3%rank 89 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −13.8 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +1.9
- Last season's net rating
- +3.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 29%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.1
- Change since preseason
- +1.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.4 (rank 127)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 102.6 (rank 105)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.7 (rank 140)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.8 (rank 188)
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Louis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +14.2 | 114.7 | 100.5 | 56 |
| 2 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.8 | 113.1 | 100.3 | 60 |
| 3 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.4 | 107.0 | 99.6 | 91 |
| 4 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.2 | 106.0 | 98.8 | 93 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.8 | 108.5 | 101.6 | 95 |
| 6 | Dayton | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.4 | 109.1 | 102.7 | 97 |
| 7 | Davidson | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 107.0 | 102.0 | 104 |
| 8 | Duquesne | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 116 |
| 9 | Saint Joseph's | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 104.6 | 103.2 | 122 |
| 10 | Fordham | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 103.7 | 103.9 | 128 |
| 11 | Richmond | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 105.7 | 106.8 | 136 |
| 12 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 103.6 | 105.2 | 142 |
| 13 | St. Bonaventure | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 102.4 | 107.3 | 183 |
| 14 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 100.9 | 107.0 | 199 |