Dayton Flyers

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Illinois · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ET

N Illinois2%98%Dayton

Projected 89-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 20-14

Net rating+6.4Rank 97 of 365 · offence 87, defence 107

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-14 (15 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 10.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field13%
Round of 323%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs NJITrank 349	Home	97%	78-54	W 89-58	Right
Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET	vs Northern Illinoisrank 351	Home	98%	89-64	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Sienarank 249	Home	92%	82-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 13% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Northern IllinoisA win: 13% · a loss: 14%−1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs SienaA win: 13% · a loss: 12%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aiden DerkackG	1	29.0	21.0	11.0	2.0	−0.7	+0.7
Tristian FordG	1	28.0	13.0	2.0	4.0	−0.7	+0.7
Amal L'EtangF	1	27.0	20.0	11.0	1.0	+4.1	+2.9
Grant RandallF · transfer from Quinnipiac	1	27.0	7.0	6.0	2.0	+0.9	+1.4
Zaide LoweryG · transfer from Marquette	1	19.0	8.0	1.0	3.0	+1.2	+1.1
Landen JosephG · transfer from Marshall	1	19.0	5.0	4.0	4.0	+1.8	+1.3
Travis PerryG · transfer from Ole Miss	1	18.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	+2.1	+1.3
Jaiun SimonF	1	13.0	4.0	6.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.1
Malcolm ThomasF	1	10.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+2.2	+0.8
Damon FrieryF	1	6.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.4
Jaron McKieG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
Evan DickeyG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1
Cody PeckF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Julian WashingtonG	1	1.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.3%rank 226	49.1%rank 52	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.8%rank 251	17.7%rank 326	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.3%rank 16	31.2%rank 115	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.0%rank 222	25.9%rank 274	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +15.2 points a game (they shot 12.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.3
Last season's net rating: +12.1
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.5
Change since preseason: +0.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.1 (rank 87)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.7 (rank 107)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 252)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −20.1 (rank 275)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	91
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	93
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.6	95
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	97
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	104
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.2	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.3	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.6	103.6	105.2	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.3	183
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.0	199