Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs West Georgia · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

West Georgia10%90%Loyola Chicago

Projected 80-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-18

Net rating−1.7Rank 142 of 365 · offence 163, defence 141

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-18 (8 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 11.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs The Citadelrank 361	Home	89%	73-58	W 77-52	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs West Georgiarank 318	Home	90%	80-65	—
Wed 11 Nov3 PM ET	at Air Forcerank 298	Away	66%	76-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs West GeorgiaA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Air ForceA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dayan NessahG · transfer from Cleveland St	1	32.0	19.0	9.0	0.0	−0.3	+1.0
Guillaume GrotzingerG	1	28.0	10.0	2.0	11.0	−2.0	+0.1
Jason SchofieldC · transfer from Marist	1	26.0	10.0	12.0	2.0	+0.9	+1.4
Ryan AgarwalG · transfer from Stanford	1	24.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.9
Chris JeffreyG · transfer from Villanova	1	20.0	14.0	0.0	3.0	+2.3	+1.5
Jayden DawsonG · transfer from Kansas	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	+1.3	+1.0
Xavier AmosF	1	14.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.1
Nic AndersonG	1	14.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	−2.4	−0.1
Dayton WilliamsG	1	14.0	8.0	6.0	2.0	−1.6	+0.1
Ryan KreagerC	1	12.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.7%rank 278	50.2%rank 131	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 152	20.0%rank 19	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.6%rank 3	32.4%rank 271	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	21.9%rank 360	25.4%rank 245	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.1 points a game (they shot 32.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: 0.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.1
Last season's net rating: −10.3
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.0
Change since preseason: +3.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.6 (rank 163)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.3 (rank 141)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.2 (rank 310)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −23.4 (rank 286)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	90
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	92
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.7	94
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	96
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	105
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.2	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.2	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.7	103.6	105.3	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.4	185
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.0	199