The Citadel Bulldogs
Next: vs Erskine · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-26
Net rating−23.4Rank 361 of 365 · offence 351, defence 360
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 8-26 (4 to 11 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 3-17
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Loyola Chicagorank 142 | Away | 11% | 58-73 | L 52-77 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Erskinenot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs Virginia Lynchburgnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos GonzalesG | 1 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −6.3 | −2.3 |
| Eddrin BronsonG · transfer from Furman | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.8 | −1.3 |
| Keynan DavisG | 1 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −6.8 | −2.2 |
| Joe HurlburtF · transfer from Davidson | 1 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | −3.8 | −0.7 |
| Marcus BanksG | 1 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −4.1 | −0.8 |
| Aaron EkwereF | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.1 | −0.7 |
| Tyler MrusF · transfer from BYU | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Ramel BetheaF · transfer from Green Bay | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Chase CormierG · transfer from Iona | 1 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.7 | −0.9 |
| Cassius BonjaskyF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −6.5 | −0.1 |
| Logan MenefeeF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −7.8 | −0.1 |
| Ja'Yon AlexanderG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.2%rank 233 | 49.7%rank 84 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.0%rank 347 | 18.6%rank 211 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.3%rank 90 | 35.6%rank 362 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.4%rank 116 | 21.9%rank 6 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.1 points a game (they shot 27.6%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.9
- Last season's net rating
- −20.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 14%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.2
- Change since preseason
- −3.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 92.9 (rank 351)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 116.3 (rank 360)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.7 (rank 345)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −1.6 (rank 121)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 103.5 | 107.3 | 168 |
| 2 | East Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.1 | 108.1 | 186 |
| 3 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.9 | 108.4 | 191 |
| 4 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 102.9 | 109.6 | 212 |
| 5 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 101.2 | 109.0 | 228 |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 102.2 | 110.0 | 228 |
| 7 | Western Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 100.4 | 109.0 | 240 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 98.9 | 110.6 | 279 |
| 9 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 101.7 | 113.5 | 280 |
| 10 | VMI | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 96.2 | 114.1 | 336 |
| 11 | The Citadel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.4 | 92.9 | 116.3 | 361 |