VMI Keydets
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21
Net rating−17.9Rank 336 of 365 · offence 315, defence 343
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-21 (8 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Virginia Lynchburgnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 115-83 | |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | at SMUrank 73 | Away | 1% | 62-90 | — | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | at UTSArank 315 | Away | 30% | 73-79 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | vs North Carolina Centralrank 350 | Home | 69% | 76-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at SMUA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: at UTSAA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs North Carolina CentralA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion VaamondeF | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Joao PanzoF | 1 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Rokas ZilysG | 1 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| TJ JohnsonF | 1 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Rickey Bradley Jr.G | 1 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Alexander DaushviliF | 1 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −6.2 | −1.2 |
| Paulius NarvilasF | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| AJ ClarkG | 1 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −4.6 | −0.6 |
| Trap JohnsonG · transfer from UC San Diego | 1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Cal ListonF | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −7.2 | −1.3 |
| Rodrigas JuceviciusG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Dionysis ExarchopoulosF | 1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Walker AndrewsG | 1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −5.4 | −0.4 |
| Cazell Henderson-BradleyG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | 0.0 |
| Mason LawsonG | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −7.1 | −0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −17.9
- Last season's net rating
- −26.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 46%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.1
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.2 (rank 315)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 114.1 (rank 343)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.2 (rank 208)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 103.5 | 107.3 | 168 |
| 2 | East Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.1 | 108.1 | 186 |
| 3 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.9 | 108.4 | 191 |
| 4 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 102.9 | 109.6 | 212 |
| 5 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 101.2 | 109.0 | 228 |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 102.2 | 110.0 | 228 |
| 7 | Western Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 100.4 | 109.0 | 240 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 98.9 | 110.6 | 279 |
| 9 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 101.7 | 113.5 | 280 |
| 10 | VMI | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 96.2 | 114.1 | 336 |
| 11 | The Citadel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.4 | 92.9 | 116.3 | 361 |