Chattanooga Mocs
Next: at Penn State · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ETProjected 68-87 · Game page
Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating−7.8Rank 228 of 365 · offence 190, defence 272
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field10%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Louisvillerank 18 | Away | 1% | 55-86 | L 70-84 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET | at Penn Staterank 68 | Away | 5% | 68-87 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs Covenantnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Penn StateA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe McDowell-WhiteG | 1 | 33.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Lenny AnigbataG | 1 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Yonatan LevyF · transfer from Pepperdine | 1 | 26.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Zach BleshoyG | 1 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Matt HamptonG | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Christian MatosG | 1 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Sean CusanoG | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Tre PowellG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Josh BowmanF | 1 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| John FleemanC | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Houston HollandG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.8 | 0.0 |
| Anthony SwiftF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | 0.0 |
| Liam VittersG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.9%rank 48 | 49.5%rank 75 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.2%rank 310 | 18.2%rank 256 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.2%rank 95 | 32.6%rank 288 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.9%rank 293 | 24.0%rank 76 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.9 points a game (they shot 25.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.7
- Last season's net rating
- −12.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 23%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.5
- Change since preseason
- +1.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.2 (rank 190)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.0 (rank 272)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 185)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +21.8 (rank 17)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 103.5 | 107.3 | 168 |
| 2 | East Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.1 | 108.1 | 186 |
| 3 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.9 | 108.4 | 191 |
| 4 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 102.9 | 109.6 | 212 |
| 5 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 101.2 | 109.0 | 228 |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 102.2 | 110.0 | 228 |
| 7 | Western Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 100.4 | 109.0 | 240 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 98.9 | 110.6 | 279 |
| 9 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 101.7 | 113.5 | 280 |
| 10 | VMI | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 96.2 | 114.1 | 336 |
| 11 | The Citadel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.4 | 92.9 | 116.3 | 361 |