Penn State Nittany Lions

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Pitt · Sun 8 Nov, 8 PM ET

Pitt47%53%Penn State

Projected 77-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 15-16

Net rating+8.8Rank 82 of 365 · offence 41, defence 143

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-16 (11 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 323%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Canisiusrank 363	Home	98%	80-54	W 97-57	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs Chattanoogarank 193	Home	95%	87-68	W 97-93	Right
Sun 8 Nov8 PM ET	vs Pittsburghrank 86	Neutral	53%	77-76	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Mercyhurstrank 335	Home	98%	89-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs PittsburghA win: 9% · a loss: 6%+3 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs MercyhurstA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dasonte BowenG · transfer from St Bonaventure	2	30.5	9.0	5.5	3.0	+1.1	+1.8
Josh ReedF	2	27.0	18.5	3.5	0.5	+3.2	+2.6
Brant ByersF · transfer from Miami OH	2	27.0	7.0	1.5	3.5	+2.8	+2.4
Thomas AllardG	2	26.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	+0.3	+1.1
Ivan JuricF	2	23.5	14.5	12.5	0.5	+2.0	+1.7
Roko PrkacinF	2	22.0	20.5	6.0	2.5	+0.7	+1.1
Francois WibautF	2	19.0	12.0	3.5	2.0	+0.7	+0.9
Roberts BlumsG · transfer from Davidson	1	19.0	5.0	4.0	4.0	+5.0	+2.4
Jay RodgersG · transfer from C Connecticut	2	7.0	1.0	0.5	1.5	+0.7	+0.3
Tim ObohF · transfer from Buffalo	2	4.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	+3.5	+0.4
Andy GemaoG	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.2
Reggie GrodinG	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	+1.5	+0.2
Grant SpacciapolliG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.1
Aleksandar ZecevicF	1	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 211	52.0%rank 326	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 145	17.8%rank 317	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.3%rank 20	32.0%rank 253	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	33.1%rank 1	23.4%rank 47	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.7 points a game (they shot 28.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +7.9
Last season's net rating: +1.8
Last season's minutes returning: 26%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.4
Change since preseason: +0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.4 (rank 41)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.5 (rank 143)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 119)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.9 (rank 249)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.3	93.6	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.6	92.5	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.5	91.8	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.9	94.1	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	18
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.6	96.1	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.2	95.8	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.8	100.9	34
9	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.8	98.2	40
10	Indiana	2-0	0-0	+16.1	115.3	99.2	42
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.5	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.9	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.7	97.3	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.4	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.4	98.4	65
16	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	111.0	100.8	74
17	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.4	101.8	79
18	Penn State	2-0	0-0	+8.8	114.4	105.5	82