Mercyhurst Lakers
Next: at Notre Dame · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 58-86 · Game page
Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19
Net rating−17.6Rank 335 of 365 · offence 333, defence 325
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-19 (10 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field10%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Marquetterank 29 | Away | 1% | 52-83 | L 43-78 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Notre Damerank 58 | Away | 1% | 58-86 | — | |
| Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET | vs Penn State Shenangonot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET | at Penn Staterank 68 | Away | 1% | 61-87 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Notre DameA win: 8% · a loss: 10%−3 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Penn StateA win: 8% · a loss: 11%−3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake LemelmanG | 1 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.6 | −0.3 |
| Geoff SprouseG · transfer from American | 1 | 27.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Hunter Te RatanaG | 1 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Cameron JohnsonF | 1 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.9 | −1.1 |
| Or FaranG | 1 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −5.7 | −1.4 |
| Shane KirkerF | 1 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Deraje AgbaosiF | 1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Markus Maxwell-GrimesG | 1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Chris LemanF | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −5.4 | −0.6 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.4%rank 346 | 49.8%rank 91 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.4%rank 320 | 18.7%rank 117 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.2%rank 97 | 35.6%rank 363 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.0%rank 329 | 24.9%rank 131 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +8.4 points a game (they shot 19.1%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.1
- Last season's net rating
- −10.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 22%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.1
- Change since preseason
- −1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.1 (rank 333)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 112.7 (rank 325)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.8 (rank 341)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +20.2 (rank 27)
Northeast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Connecticut | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.4 | 95.8 | 109.2 | 296 |
| 2 | Long Island University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 94.5 | 108.7 | 307 |
| 3 | New Haven | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.0 | 95.4 | 110.3 | 312 |
| 4 | Mercyhurst | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.6 | 95.1 | 112.7 | 335 |
| 5 | Wagner | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 93.1 | 111.9 | 342 |
| 6 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 97.2 | 116.0 | 343 |
| 7 | Stonehill | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.8 | 92.9 | 112.7 | 347 |
| 8 | Le Moyne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.7 | 95.3 | 116.0 | 352 |
| 9 | Chicago State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −26.3 | 92.2 | 118.5 | 364 |