Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Makes the tournament23%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15
Net rating−13.4Rank 296 of 365 · offence 323, defence 246
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-15 (12 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 33%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 23%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field23%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Templerank 136 | Away | 19% | 61-72 | L 56-68 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Syracuserank 67 | Away | 3% | 60-84 | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | at Dartmouthrank 178 | Away | 17% | 65-76 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | at Sacred Heartrank 285 | Away | 35% | 70-75 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at SyracuseA win: 24% · a loss: 23%+2 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at DartmouthA win: 25% · a loss: 22%+3 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Sacred HeartA win: 23% · a loss: 23%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James JonesG | 1 | 34.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | −3.4 | −0.8 |
| Jhace JohnsonG | 1 | 30.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Ashton ReynoldsG | 1 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Raphel LaurentG | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Jayden MottF | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −4.6 | −1.1 |
| Elijah ParkerG | 1 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −4.1 | −0.7 |
| Brayden JacksonF | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Rashawn TibbyF | 1 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Victor Payne Jr.G | 1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.1 |
| Matt GoodwinG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Roddy JonesG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.8%rank 266 | 49.9%rank 108 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 72 | 18.4%rank 232 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.0%rank 268 | 30.0%rank 31 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.2%rank 321 | 22.1%rank 10 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.1 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.8
- Last season's net rating
- −12.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 35%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.7
- Change since preseason
- −1.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.8 (rank 323)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.2 (rank 246)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.2 (rank 312)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −1.1 (rank 118)
Northeast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Connecticut | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.4 | 95.8 | 109.2 | 296 |
| 2 | Long Island University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 94.5 | 108.7 | 307 |
| 3 | New Haven | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.0 | 95.4 | 110.3 | 312 |
| 4 | Mercyhurst | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.6 | 95.1 | 112.7 | 335 |
| 5 | Wagner | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 93.1 | 111.9 | 342 |
| 6 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 97.2 | 116.0 | 343 |
| 7 | Stonehill | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.8 | 92.9 | 112.7 | 347 |
| 8 | Le Moyne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.7 | 95.3 | 116.0 | 352 |
| 9 | Chicago State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −26.3 | 92.2 | 118.5 | 364 |