Dartmouth Big Green
Next: vs C Connecticut · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 76-65 · Game page
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-13
Net rating−4.4Rank 178 of 365 · offence 239, defence 133
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-13 (12 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Maristrank 277 | Away | 38% | 64-68 | W 69-62 | Wrong |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Framingham Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 107-50 | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Central Connecticutrank 296 | Home | 83% | 76-65 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov1 PM ET | at UAlbanyrank 323 | Away | 65% | 75-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Central ConnecticutA win: 7% · a loss: 7%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at UAlbanyA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola AbusaraG | 2 | 20.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Cameron McNameeG | 2 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Acen JimenezG | 2 | 20.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 |
| Landon WilliamsG · transfer from Niagara | 2 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Ernas ValauskasG | 2 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Cam HiattG | 2 | 18.0 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Dan CivelloC | 2 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Anton StrelnikovC | 2 | 14.5 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Tyler GarrettF | 2 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −0.8 | +0.3 |
| Ben BrownG | 2 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Patrick Tivnan Jr.F | 2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| CJ Aldrich IIIG | 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Jake PollackF | 1 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.6%rank 63 | 48.9%rank 42 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 262 | 20.2%rank 15 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.2%rank 100 | 29.8%rank 27 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.6%rank 106 | 27.6%rank 336 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −7.4 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.8
- Last season's net rating
- −8.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 33%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.7
- Change since preseason
- +3.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.4 (rank 239)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 104.8 (rank 133)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.0 (rank 106)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −11.4 (rank 216)
Ivy League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yale | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.5 | 108.7 | 104.2 | 106 |
| 2 | Harvard | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 104.9 | 103.5 | 121 |
| 3 | Pennsylvania | 0-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 104.9 | 105.4 | 131 |
| 4 | Princeton | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.2 | 104.3 | 105.5 | 138 |
| 5 | Cornell | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.8 | 111.2 | 177 |
| 6 | Dartmouth | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.4 | 100.4 | 104.8 | 178 |
| 7 | Columbia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.8 | 110.2 | 205 |
| 8 | Brown | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 96.0 | 105.2 | 246 |