Harvard Crimson

Men's · Ivy League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Chicago · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament21%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-11

Net rating+1.4Rank 121 of 365 · offence 136, defence 113

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-11 (13 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 27%
Wins the conference tournament: 21%
Average seed if in the field: 12.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field21%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs MITnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 73-45
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Chicagonot Division I	Away	—	—	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	at Northeasternrank 241	Away	61%	78-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 21% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: at NortheasternA win: 21% · a loss: 21%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Thomas Batties IIF	1	26.0	11.0	5.0	2.0	+2.0	+1.8
Tey BarbourG	1	26.0	18.0	5.0	1.0	+1.5	+1.6
Ben EisendrathG	1	23.0	5.0	8.0	4.0	−0.4	+0.7
Robert HintonG	1	22.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+2.6	+1.8
Jason SingletonG	1	18.0	5.0	3.0	2.0	−0.6	+0.5
Luca Ace-NasteskiF	1	15.0	9.0	6.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.2
Julian AdigunC	1	13.0	5.0	4.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.4
Brandon BurrellG	1	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.4
Xavier NesbittG	1	9.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−2.6	−0.1
Preston MerrickG	1	9.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.3
Kenan ParrishF	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.2
Ryan SullivanF	1	5.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.2
Frankie ManninoG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Payton PittsG	1	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	0.0
Joseph QuarteyG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.7	0.0
Kabir NarasimhanF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Avner DrorF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 156	18.6%rank 134	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 128	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 131	25.2%rank 153	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +1.4
Last season's net rating: +0.9
Last season's minutes returning: 83%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.9 (rank 136)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 103.5 (rank 113)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.7 (rank 345)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Ivy League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Yale	1-0	0-0	+4.4	108.7	104.3	107
2	Harvard	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.9	103.5	121
3	Pennsylvania	0-0	0-0	−0.6	104.9	105.5	131
4	Princeton	1-0	0-0	−1.2	104.3	105.5	138
5	Cornell	1-0	0-0	−4.4	106.8	111.2	177
6	Dartmouth	2-0	0-0	−4.4	100.5	104.8	177
7	Columbia	0-1	0-0	−6.4	103.8	110.2	207
8	Brown	0-1	0-0	−9.2	96.0	105.2	246