Pennsylvania Quakers

Men's · Ivy League · 0-0, 0-0 in conference

Next: at Illinois · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Penn1%99%Illinois

Projected 63-91 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-12

Net rating−0.6Rank 131 of 365 · offence 137, defence 144

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-12 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 19%
Wins the conference tournament: 15%
Average seed if in the field: 12.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field15%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	at Illinoisrank 5	Away	1%	63-91	—
Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Howardrank 210	Home	77%	80-71	—
Wed 11 Nov5:30 PM ET	at Navyrank 282	Away	65%	75-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at IllinoisA win: 16% · a loss: 15%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs HowardA win: 15% · a loss: 16%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at NavyA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

0 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −0.5
Last season's net rating: +0.7
Last season's minutes returning: 78%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.9 (rank 137)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.5 (rank 144)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.9 (rank 108)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Ivy League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Yale	1-0	0-0	+4.4	108.7	104.3	107
2	Harvard	1-0	0-0	+1.4	105.0	103.5	121
3	Pennsylvania	0-0	0-0	−0.6	104.9	105.5	131
4	Princeton	1-0	0-0	−1.2	104.4	105.5	138
5	Dartmouth	2-0	0-0	−4.4	100.5	104.8	177
6	Cornell	1-0	0-0	−4.4	106.8	111.2	177
7	Columbia	0-1	0-0	−6.4	103.9	110.2	207
8	Brown	0-1	0-0	−9.2	96.0	105.2	246