Navy Midshipmen
Next: vs Delaware St · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 74-63 · Game page
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−12.0Rank 282 of 365 · offence 322, defence 203
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (11 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 7%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at George Washingtonrank 93 | Away | 27% | 63-71 | L 39-91 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Delaware Staterank 353 | Home | 82% | 74-63 | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | vs Central Pennnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov5:30 PM ET | vs Pennsylvaniarank 131 | Home | 35% | 70-75 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Delaware StateA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs PennsylvaniaA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jinwoo KimG | 1 | 33.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Cam ColeG | 1 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| David BurnettG | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| Jerry Ashley Jr.F | 1 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Luke MayberryG | 1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Justin NordinG | 1 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Sean GriffinF | 1 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Drew TimmonsF | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Akim IscandariG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Julian GabbidonG | 1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Matt GaffneyG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.2%rank 364 | 52.4%rank 340 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.5%rank 330 | 18.9%rank 91 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.8%rank 287 | 30.8%rank 77 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.2%rank 281 | 24.9%rank 134 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.3 expected (−0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −15.8 points a game (they shot 51.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.8
- Last season's net rating
- +2.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 41%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −7.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.9 (rank 322)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.9 (rank 203)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.3 (rank 306)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +7.2 (rank 90)
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 101.1 | 105.6 | 179 |
| 2 | Colgate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 104.3 | 110.3 | 197 |
| 3 | Lehigh | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.1 | 101.6 | 109.6 | 234 |
| 4 | Boston University | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 104.8 | 113.7 | 243 |
| 5 | Navy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 95.9 | 107.9 | 282 |
| 6 | Army | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.3 | 111.1 | 301 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 97.1 | 112.5 | 322 |
| 8 | Lafayette | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.4 | 111.1 | 324 |
| 9 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.5 | 97.1 | 113.6 | 331 |
| 10 | Holy Cross | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.0 | 96.1 | 116.1 | 348 |