Army Black Knights
Next: vs Mount St Mary · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−13.8Rank 301 of 365 · offence 298, defence 297
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (10 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Dukerank 1 | Away | 0% | 48-88 | L 50-84 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET | vs Mount St Marynot Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at New Havenrank 312 | Away | 39% | 69-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at New HavenA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacen HollowayF | 1 | 36.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.3 |
| Ryan CurryG | 1 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Kevin McCarthyG | 1 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.3 | −0.8 |
| Tate LaczkowskiF | 1 | 31.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Dillon WattG | 1 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −4.3 | −1.1 |
| Jaden EllisG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Dylan BennerF | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.5 |
| Nnaemeka IkechiF | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.2 |
| Jahaan GreenG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.1 |
| Dylan MuransF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.0%rank 248 | 49.9%rank 108 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.7%rank 363 | 19.0%rank 80 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.0%rank 105 | 33.0%rank 308 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.6%rank 305 | 26.6%rank 301 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +9.3 points a game (they shot 18.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.2
- Last season's net rating
- −18.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 56%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 97.3 (rank 298)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.1 (rank 297)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.3 (rank 200)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +33.5 (rank 1)
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 101.1 | 105.6 | 179 |
| 2 | Colgate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 104.3 | 110.3 | 197 |
| 3 | Lehigh | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.1 | 101.6 | 109.6 | 234 |
| 4 | Boston University | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 104.8 | 113.7 | 243 |
| 5 | Navy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 95.9 | 107.9 | 282 |
| 6 | Army | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.3 | 111.1 | 301 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 97.1 | 112.5 | 322 |
| 8 | Lafayette | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.4 | 111.1 | 324 |
| 9 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.5 | 97.1 | 113.6 | 331 |
| 10 | Holy Cross | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.0 | 96.1 | 116.1 | 348 |