Lafayette Leopards
Next: vs King's · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-20
Net rating−15.8Rank 324 of 365 · offence 326, defence 299
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-20 (9 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Butlerrank 84 | Away | 5% | 58-79 | L 60-96 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET | vs King'snot Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET | at Saint Joseph'srank 122 | Away | 6% | 65-83 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs Penn State Lehigh Valleynot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at Saint Joseph'sA win: 1% · a loss: 2%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper KeslerG | 1 | 32.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.4 |
| Beckett CurrieG | 1 | 28.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Jasraj GillF | 1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Owen KellyG | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Shelton HentonG | 1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Shareef JacksonF | 1 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Misha BednostinC | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −5.2 | −0.9 |
| KaiMani MurdockF | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.5 |
| Patrick D'ArcyG · transfer from East Carolina | 1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.5 |
| Malik RasulF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.6 | −0.2 |
| Luke BevilacquaF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.6 | −0.2 |
| Folabomi FayemiG | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.5 | −0.2 |
| Ashton WallaceG | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −5.2 | −0.2 |
| Luke AzzinaroF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.9 | −0.1 |
| AJ CollinsG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.4%rank 300 | 50.8%rank 257 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.7%rank 243 | 20.3%rank 11 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.1%rank 260 | 33.8%rank 342 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.9%rank 337 | 24.8%rank 128 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −5.3 points a game (they shot 36.4%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.2
- Last season's net rating
- −15.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 25%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.2
- Change since preseason
- −1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 95.4 (rank 326)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.1 (rank 299)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.6 (rank 155)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +8.8 (rank 81)
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 101.1 | 105.6 | 179 |
| 2 | Colgate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 104.3 | 110.3 | 197 |
| 3 | Lehigh | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.1 | 101.6 | 109.6 | 234 |
| 4 | Boston University | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 104.8 | 113.7 | 243 |
| 5 | Navy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 95.9 | 107.9 | 282 |
| 6 | Army | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.3 | 111.1 | 301 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 97.1 | 112.5 | 322 |
| 8 | Lafayette | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.4 | 111.1 | 324 |
| 9 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.5 | 97.1 | 113.6 | 331 |
| 10 | Holy Cross | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.0 | 96.1 | 116.1 | 348 |