American University Eagles
Makes the tournament28%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating−4.9Rank 183 of 365 · offence 223, defence 150
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (15 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 41%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 28%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field28%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Cincinnatirank 15 | Away | 1% | 54-81 | L 53-79 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | at Clemsonrank 53 | Away | 6% | 63-82 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Drexelrank 224 | Away | 44% | 69-71 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at ClemsonA win: 27% · a loss: 28%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at DrexelA win: 28% · a loss: 28%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julen IturbeF | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.6 |
| Madden CollinsG | 1 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.9 | +2.0 |
| Greg JonesF | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −0.6 | +0.6 |
| Matt MayockF | 1 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Wyatt NausadisG | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Eric MichaelsF | 1 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Dean HogansG | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| DJ SandiG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Merrick SmithF | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Kade SebastianG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Chris EaganF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.1 |
| Noah JonesF | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.4%rank 328 | 48.9%rank 58 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 303 | 18.7%rank 113 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.6%rank 294 | 32.7%rank 291 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.7%rank 75 | 23.8%rank 52 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.8 points a game (they shot 29.6%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.2
- Last season's net rating
- −6.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 85%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.7 (rank 223)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.7 (rank 150)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.9 (rank 216)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +23.2 (rank 10)
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 100.7 | 105.7 | 183 |
| 2 | Colgate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 104.1 | 110.2 | 200 |
| 3 | Boston University | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 104.8 | 113.5 | 238 |
| 4 | Lehigh | 1-1 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 99.5 | 108.5 | 243 |
| 5 | Army | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 97.1 | 111.0 | 299 |
| 6 | Navy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 93.5 | 107.4 | 301 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.5 | 96.9 | 112.4 | 320 |
| 8 | Lafayette | 1-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.2 | 111.0 | 321 |
| 9 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.6 | 96.9 | 113.5 | 329 |
| 10 | Holy Cross | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.1 | 95.9 | 116.0 | 349 |