Cincinnati Bearcats

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Green Bay · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Green Bay1%99%Cincinnati

Projected 87-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament90%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.5

Wins the national title2%Final Four 10% · projected 26-8

Net rating+24.8Rank 11 of 365 · offence 30, defence 5

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-8 (21 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 12%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 4.5
A 1 seed: 6%

Makes the field90%
Round of 3278%
Sweet 1646%
Elite Eight22%
Final Four10%
Title game5%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs American Universityrank 179	Home	99%	82-54	W 79-53	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Green Bayrank 211	Home	99%	87-58	Live
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Minnesotarank 65	Home	88%	77-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 90% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Green BayA win: 90% · a loss: 88%+3 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs MinnesotaA win: 91% · a loss: 86%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
MJ Collins Jr.G · transfer from Utah State	1	25.0	13.0	2.0	0.0	+6.9	+4.0
Tylen RileyG · transfer from Tulsa	1	23.0	9.0	1.0	5.0	+6.1	+3.4
Tyler TejadaF · transfer from Towson	1	22.0	13.0	5.0	1.0	+4.5	+2.6
Adlan ElaminF · transfer from Utah State	1	17.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	+5.2	+2.2
Akai FlemingG · transfer from Georgia Tech	1	16.0	9.0	6.0	3.0	+2.1	+1.2
David IwezeF	1	16.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	+1.0	+0.9
Elijah PerrymanG · transfer from Utah State	1	15.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	+5.5	+2.0
Myles ColvinG · transfer from Wake Forest	1	14.0	3.0	7.0	1.0	+5.0	+1.8
Trevian CarsonG · transfer from N Dakota St	1	14.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	+4.8	+1.7
Riley AllenspachF · transfer from George Mason	1	13.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	+6.6	+2.0
Eric MahaffeyG · transfer from Akron	1	13.0	6.0	4.0	2.0	+4.8	+1.6
Amani LylesF · transfer from Akron	1	8.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+7.3	+1.3
Jayden HastingsF · transfer from Boston College	1	3.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+4.4	+0.3
Deshaun VadenF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 317	48.7%rank 31	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.9%rank 259	19.1%rank 63	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.7%rank 70	30.6%rank 65	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.4%rank 313	26.4%rank 294	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.1 points a game (they shot 24.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +25.5
Last season's net rating: +17.3
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +16.5
Change since preseason: −0.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 115.0 (rank 30)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.2 (rank 5)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 155)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.5 (rank 153)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113