Utah Utes

Men's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Towson · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET

Towson16%84%Utah

Projected 77-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-16

Net rating+7.3Rank 92 of 365 · offence 97, defence 83

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (12 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Long Beach Staterank 245	Home	95%	79-58	W 66-63	Right
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET	vs Towsonrank 151	Home	84%	77-65	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Weber Staterank 281	Home	95%	84-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs TowsonA win: 5% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Weber StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trey CampbellG · transfer from Northern Iowa	1	37.0	20.0	6.0	8.0	+3.2	+3.5
Jackson HolcombeG · transfer from Utah Valley	1	33.0	14.0	8.0	0.0	+4.7	+3.9
Alec AnigbataF	1	33.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.3
Malek GommaC · transfer from Weber St	1	30.0	7.0	11.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.9
TJ BurchG · transfer from Wright St	1	27.0	2.0	5.0	4.0	+2.7	+2.3
Taison ChatmanG · transfer from Ohio State	1	13.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	+2.5	+1.0
Jaxon JohnsonF	1	10.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.2
Zati LoubakiF	1	10.0	8.0	1.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.2
Lucas LangaritaG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Babacar FayeF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 129	51.0%rank 270	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.6%rank 337	17.6%rank 330	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.9%rank 276	29.7%rank 23	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.5%rank 308	25.0%rank 142	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.8 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +9.9
Last season's net rating: +4.0
Last season's minutes returning: 8%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.4
Change since preseason: −2.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.0 (rank 97)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.7 (rank 83)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.4 (rank 295)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −9.0 (rank 196)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+30.6	119.8	89.2	3
2	Houston	1-0	0-0	+30.6	120.0	89.5	4
3	Iowa State	0-1	0-0	+27.2	120.0	92.8	9
4	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+27.2	117.8	90.7	10
5	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+24.8	115.0	90.2	11
6	Arizona	0-1	0-0	+22.8	117.5	94.7	16
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+20.8	120.2	99.3	24
8	TCU	1-0	0-0	+17.3	112.8	95.5	35
9	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	109.7	92.9	38
10	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+16.4	114.3	97.9	42
11	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	45
12	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+14.8	114.3	99.5	52
13	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+12.4	112.6	100.2	63
14	UCF	1-0	0-0	+10.7	114.3	103.6	72
15	Utah	1-0	0-0	+7.3	108.0	100.7	92
16	Kansas State	0-1	0-0	+3.3	105.0	101.7	113