Towson Tigers
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14
Net rating−2.5Rank 151 of 365 · offence 185, defence 135
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-14 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 15%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Santa Clararank 64 | Away | 9% | 59-76 | L 70-89 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET | at Utahrank 91 | Away | 16% | 65-77 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs Long Island Universityrank 307 | Home | 87% | 77-64 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | vs Loyola Marylandrank 321 | Home | 88% | 79-65 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at UtahA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Long Island UniversityA win: 12% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Loyola MarylandA win: 12% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion StanfordG · transfer from Villanova | 1 | 33.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +1.3 |
| Jaquan WomackG | 1 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +1.3 |
| Jon BartonG | 1 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Christian DoerrG | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Caleb EmbeyaF | 1 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 |
| Ben RoseboroughG · transfer from San José St | 1 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Chike NdefoG | 1 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Alex AtkinsonF | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Mani SajidG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Jaylin Williams CrawfordG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Brandon HolmesF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Devan KirkF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Stephon Ashley WrightG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.9%rank 259 | 50.6%rank 246 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 92 | 19.0%rank 91 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.9%rank 24 | 31.3%rank 118 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.0%rank 88 | 25.8%rank 265 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −10.0 points a game (they shot 42.4%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.4
- Last season's net rating
- +0.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 26%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.1
- Change since preseason
- +0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.5 (rank 185)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.1 (rank 135)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.8 (rank 339)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +12.3 (rank 63)
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.8 | 105.3 | 130 |
| 2 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.2 | 104.0 | 105.3 | 139 |
| 3 | Towson | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 102.5 | 105.1 | 151 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.5 | 100.8 | 104.4 | 164 |
| 5 | Hofstra | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 102.0 | 105.7 | 165 |
| 6 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 104.5 | 109.5 | 183 |
| 7 | Campbell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.1 | 101.9 | 107.0 | 187 |
| 8 | William & Mary | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 101.4 | 108.3 | 215 |
| 9 | Drexel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 98.6 | 105.9 | 222 |
| 10 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 103.9 | 112.5 | 241 |
| 11 | Stony Brook | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 100.4 | 109.7 | 248 |
| 12 | Hampton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 96.7 | 107.7 | 273 |
| 13 | North Carolina A&T | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 98.5 | 111.1 | 287 |