Probable StatsCollege basketball, rated
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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 7:32 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Towson Tigers

Men's · Coastal Athletic Association · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14
Net rating−2.5Rank 151 of 365 · offence 185, defence 135

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons
Projected record
19-14 (13 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record
11-7
Wins or shares the conference title
15%
Wins the conference tournament
12%
Average seed if in the field
13.6
A 1 seed
0%
  1. Makes the field12%
  2. Round of 32<1%
  3. Sweet 16<1%
  4. Elite Eight0%
  5. Final Four0%
  6. Title game0%
  7. Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game
DateOpponentWhereWin chanceProjectedResultPick
Mon 2 Novat Santa Clararank 64Away9%59-76L 70-89Right
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ETat Utahrank 91Away16%65-77—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ETvs Long Island Universityrank 307Home87%77-64—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ETvs Loyola Marylandrank 321Home88%79-65—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 12% · the next 7 days
  1. Thu 5 Nov: at UtahA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts
  2. Mon 9 Nov: vs Long Island UniversityA win: 12% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
  3. Thu 12 Nov: vs Loyola MarylandA win: 12% · a loss: 12%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement
PlayerGamesMinutesPointsReboundsAssistsRatingValue
Zion StanfordG · transfer from Villanova133.015.04.00.0+0.2+1.3
Jaquan WomackG130.015.012.00.0+0.3+1.3
Jon BartonG125.010.01.02.0−1.3+0.3
Christian DoerrG120.07.02.04.0−1.2+0.3
Caleb EmbeyaF120.05.04.00.00.0+0.7
Ben RoseboroughG · transfer from San José St119.07.00.01.0−1.1+0.3
Chike NdefoG118.03.08.02.0−0.4+0.5
Alex AtkinsonF118.06.04.01.0−1.1+0.3
Mani SajidG19.02.00.00.0−0.9+0.2
Jaylin Williams CrawfordG13.00.01.00.0−0.7+0.1
Brandon HolmesF12.00.01.00.0−0.7+0.1
Devan KirkF12.00.00.00.0−0.7+0.1
Stephon Ashley WrightG11.00.00.00.0−0.70.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

OffenceDefenceLeague
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin49.9%rank 25950.6%rank 24650.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin18.2%rank 9219.0%rank 9118.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin33.9%rank 2431.3%rank 11831.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin26.0%rank 8825.8%rank 26525.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances
0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting
−10.0 points a game (they shot 42.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws
−3.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team
−4−3−2−10+11 NovNow−2.5−4−3−2−10+11 NovNow−2.5
Preseason net rating
−3.4
Last season's net rating
+0.8
Last season's minutes returning
26%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes
−0.1
Change since preseason
+0.9
Offence, points per 100 possessions
102.5 (rank 185)
Defence, points allowed per 100
105.1 (rank 135)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
69.8 (rank 339)
Schedule so far, opponents' average
+12.3 (rank 63)

Coastal Athletic Association by rating

13 teams
#TeamRecordConferenceNetOffenceDefenceNational rank
1UNC Wilmington1-00-0−0.5104.8105.3130
2Charleston1-00-0−1.2104.0105.3139
3Towson0-10-0−2.5102.5105.1151
4Monmouth0-10-0−3.5100.8104.4164
5Hofstra1-00-0−3.7102.0105.7165
6Elon1-00-0−4.9104.5109.5183
7Campbell0-10-0−5.1101.9107.0187
8William & Mary1-00-0−6.9101.4108.3215
9Drexel0-10-0−7.398.6105.9222
10Northeastern0-10-0−8.7103.9112.5241
11Stony Brook1-00-0−9.3100.4109.7248
12Hampton0-10-0−11.196.7107.7273
13North Carolina A&T0-00-0−12.698.5111.1287