Elon Phoenix
Next: vs UNC Greensboro · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 81-71 · Game page
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15
Net rating−5.0Rank 184 of 365 · offence 143, defence 254
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-15 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Columbiarank 205 | Away | 26% | 65-73 | W 84-71 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs UNC Greensbororank 279 | Home | 78% | 81-71 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at George Washingtonrank 93 | Away | 12% | 68-82 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs UNC GreensboroA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at George WashingtonA win: 10% · a loss: 8%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Pettus IIG | 1 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Josh DaltonF · transfer from LMU | 1 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 |
| Raúl VillarG · transfer from Charlotte | 1 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | −0.1 | +0.9 |
| Hunter HardingC · transfer from Indiana St | 1 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Cam ThrowerG · transfer from Penn | 1 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −0.5 | +0.7 |
| Bryson CokleyG | 1 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 |
| Isaiah MbengG · transfer from East Carolina | 1 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Caleb ZhuF | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Iker GarmendiaF | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Korbin DixonG | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 53.0%rank 11 | 49.4%rank 67 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.3%rank 125 | 19.1%rank 63 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.3%rank 41 | 32.6%rank 291 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.6%rank 252 | 24.8%rank 128 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.7 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.3
- Last season's net rating
- −5.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.9
- Change since preseason
- +3.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.5 (rank 143)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.4 (rank 254)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.9 (rank 240)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.4 (rank 170)
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.8 | 105.3 | 130 |
| 2 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.2 | 104.0 | 105.2 | 139 |
| 3 | Towson | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 102.5 | 105.0 | 151 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.6 | 100.8 | 104.4 | 165 |
| 5 | Hofstra | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 102.0 | 105.7 | 166 |
| 6 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 104.5 | 109.4 | 184 |
| 7 | Campbell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.1 | 101.9 | 107.0 | 187 |
| 8 | William & Mary | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 101.4 | 108.3 | 215 |
| 9 | Drexel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 98.5 | 105.9 | 223 |
| 10 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 103.8 | 112.5 | 241 |
| 11 | Stony Brook | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 100.4 | 109.7 | 248 |
| 12 | Hampton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 96.7 | 107.7 | 274 |
| 13 | North Carolina A&T | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 98.5 | 111.1 | 287 |