Columbia Lions

Men's · Ivy League · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Stonehill · Mon 9 Nov, 7 PM ET

Stonehill11%89%Columbia

Projected 81-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16

Net rating−6.3Rank 204 of 365 · offence 161, defence 272

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-16 (10 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 14.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Elonrank 184	Home	74%	73-65	L 71-84	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	vs SUNY Old Westburynot Division I	Home	—	—	W 120-58
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Stonehillrank 348	Home	89%	81-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs StonehillA win: 4% · a loss: 5%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Hampton SandersG	2	24.0	6.5	3.5	6.0	−1.6	+0.2
Connor IgoeF	2	22.5	11.5	7.5	5.0	+0.6	+1.1
Michael MaduemeG	2	22.0	3.5	4.0	0.5	−1.9	+0.1
Gerard O'KeefeG	2	21.0	13.0	1.5	0.0	−0.8	+0.5
Josh PrattG	2	21.0	14.0	1.0	0.5	−1.8	+0.1
Mason RitterF	2	18.0	10.0	3.5	0.5	−1.2	+0.3
Douglas LangfordF · transfer from San José St	2	16.0	7.5	6.5	1.0	−2.1	0.0
Josiah CunninghamG	2	13.5	10.5	1.5	0.5	−2.3	−0.1
Gabe HornbergerG	2	10.5	0.0	2.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.1
Richard NwekeF	2	7.0	2.0	2.5	0.0	−0.1	+0.2
Nigel ClarksonF	1	11.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.2
Trae NunnG	1	11.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.2
Leland ColemanF	1	9.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	−1.9	0.0
Nino ZarkovicG	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.1
Luke CruzF	1	5.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1
Dan VesseyG	1	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1
Nicolo RomanelliG	1	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.2%rank 283	52.7%rank 348	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.0%rank 292	18.3%rank 232	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.6%rank 82	33.3%rank 321	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 232	24.9%rank 115	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.5 points a game (they shot 58.3%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.0
Last season's net rating: −0.7
Last season's minutes returning: 56%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: −3.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.8 (rank 161)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 110.0 (rank 272)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 245)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.0 (rank 158)

Ivy League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Yale	1-0	0-0	+4.6	108.1	103.4	106
2	Harvard	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.8	103.4	122
3	Pennsylvania	0-0	0-0	−0.6	104.8	105.3	132
4	Princeton	2-0	0-0	−2.1	102.6	104.7	147
5	Cornell	1-1	0-0	−3.5	105.7	109.1	164
6	Dartmouth	2-0	0-0	−4.5	100.1	104.5	178
7	Columbia	1-1	0-0	−6.3	103.8	110.0	204
8	Brown	0-1	0-0	−8.8	96.2	105.0	241