Yale Bulldogs

Men's · Ivy League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at UCF · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Yale22%78%UCF

Projected 73-83 · Game page

Makes the tournament33%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-9

Net rating+4.5Rank 106 of 365 · offence 91, defence 124

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-9 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 46%
Wins the conference tournament: 32%
Average seed if in the field: 12.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field33%
Round of 324%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Howardrank 210	Home	87%	76-62	W 72-62	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at UCFrank 72	Away	22%	73-83	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	at Baylorrank 42	Away	13%	69-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 33% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at UCFA win: 35% · a loss: 33%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at BaylorA win: 36% · a loss: 33%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trevor MullinG	1	34.0	12.0	6.0	2.0	+1.4	+2.1
Riley FoxF	1	34.0	19.0	3.0	1.0	+2.3	+2.6
Jordan BrathwaiteG	1	33.0	17.0	5.0	3.0	+0.6	+1.5
Daniel OgunyemiF	1	30.0	8.0	11.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.3
Jack SullivanF	1	25.0	10.0	9.0	1.0	+0.3	+1.1
Courtney WallaceG	1	20.0	2.0	11.0	4.0	+1.2	+1.1
Connor MayF	1	14.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.3
Jonas OwareC	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−0.5	+0.2
Jeannot BasimaG	1	4.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.0%rank 357	49.5%rank 73	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.4%rank 323	17.9%rank 313	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.8%rank 10	34.5%rank 356	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.4%rank 120	23.1%rank 36	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.2 points a game (they shot 25.9%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +4.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.4
Last season's net rating: +11.4
Last season's minutes returning: 37%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.7 (rank 91)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 104.2 (rank 124)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.9 (rank 336)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.6 (rank 174)

Ivy League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Yale	1-0	0-0	+4.5	108.7	104.2	106
2	Harvard	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.9	103.5	121
3	Pennsylvania	0-0	0-0	−0.6	104.9	105.4	131
4	Princeton	1-0	0-0	−1.2	104.3	105.5	138
5	Cornell	1-0	0-0	−4.3	106.8	111.2	177
6	Dartmouth	2-0	0-0	−4.4	100.4	104.8	178
7	Columbia	0-1	0-0	−6.4	103.8	110.2	205
8	Brown	0-1	0-0	−9.1	96.0	105.2	246