Princeton Tigers

Men's · Ivy League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Hofstra · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Hofstra31%69%Princeton

Projected 74-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament14%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-13

Net rating−1.2Rank 138 of 365 · offence 147, defence 146

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-13 (11 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 16%
Wins the conference tournament: 13%
Average seed if in the field: 13.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field14%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Carnegie Mellonnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 78-46
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Hofstrarank 166	Home	69%	74-68	—
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Sienarank 249	Away	57%	73-71	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Stony Brookrank 248	Home	80%	78-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 14% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs HofstraA win: 14% · a loss: 14%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at SienaA win: 14% · a loss: 14%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Stony BrookA win: 14% · a loss: 15%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dalen DavisG	1	23.0	16.0	0.0	2.0	+0.2	+0.9
Christopher KirkpatrickG	1	22.0	13.0	3.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.6
Jackson HickeG	1	19.0	11.0	5.0	3.0	+1.7	+1.2
Malik AbdullahiF	1	18.0	5.0	4.0	4.0	+0.4	+0.8
Jack StantonG	1	18.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	+0.3	+0.8
Landon ClarkG	1	17.0	6.0	1.0	6.0	−0.8	+0.4
CJ HappyF	1	17.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	−0.9	+0.3
Jacob HugginsF	1	16.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.5
Ethan SabecG	1	16.0	11.0	6.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.5
Peyton SealsG	1	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1
Sebastian WhitfieldG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Jacob HammondF	1	4.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Will KutzlerF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	0.0
Cash McSweeneyF	1	2.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0
William HiggsC	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Cooper MuellerG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.4	0.0
Ryan MandesG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0
Jake SussbergG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	0.0
Noah CohenG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −1.2
Last season's net rating: −7.5
Last season's minutes returning: 100%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.3 (rank 147)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.5 (rank 146)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.9 (rank 336)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Ivy League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Yale	1-0	0-0	+4.5	108.7	104.2	106
2	Harvard	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.9	103.5	121
3	Pennsylvania	0-0	0-0	−0.6	104.9	105.4	131
4	Princeton	1-0	0-0	−1.2	104.3	105.5	138
5	Cornell	1-0	0-0	−4.3	106.8	111.2	177
6	Dartmouth	2-0	0-0	−4.4	100.4	104.8	178
7	Columbia	0-1	0-0	−6.4	103.8	110.2	205
8	Brown	0-1	0-0	−9.1	96.0	105.2	246