Hofstra Pride

Men's · Coastal Athletic Association · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Princeton · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Hofstra31%69%Princeton

Projected 68-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15

Net rating−3.7Rank 165 of 365 · offence 195, defence 150

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-15 (13 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 13%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 13.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field10%
Round of 320%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs St. Joseph's Long Islandnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 97-51
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Princetonrank 138	Away	31%	68-74	Live
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	at Arizona Staterank 63	Away	9%	65-82	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 10% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at PrincetonA win: 10% · a loss: 11%−1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at Arizona StateA win: 11% · a loss: 10%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Joshua DeCadyF	1	28.0	12.0	8.0	1.0	0.0	+1.0
Nick JeffersonG	1	26.0	11.0	1.0	6.0	−1.2	+0.4
Trey Boyd IIIG	1	25.0	18.0	4.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.4
Tanner ThomasG	1	16.0	10.0	7.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.3
Justin MooreG · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	15.0	5.0	6.0	4.0	−1.6	+0.1
Deywilk TavarezG · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	15.0	9.0	7.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.2
Spence WeweF · transfer from Quinnipiac	1	15.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.4
Riley DunnF	1	14.0	2.0	8.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.3
Imanuel ZorgvolF · transfer from Youngstown St	1	13.0	10.0	6.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.7
Xavier BlakeG	1	12.0	8.0	4.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.3
Elijah GelinG	1	10.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
Michael CascioneG	1	6.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	−0.6	+0.1
Anthony StennettG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 156	18.6%rank 134	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 128	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 131	25.2%rank 153	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.7
Last season's net rating: +9.0
Last season's minutes returning: 11%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.8
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.0 (rank 195)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.7 (rank 150)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.1 (rank 317)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Coastal Athletic Association by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNC Wilmington	1-0	0-0	−0.5	104.8	105.3	130
2	Charleston	1-0	0-0	−1.2	104.0	105.3	139
3	Towson	0-1	0-0	−2.5	102.5	105.1	151
4	Monmouth	0-1	0-0	−3.5	100.8	104.4	164
5	Hofstra	1-0	0-0	−3.7	102.0	105.7	165
6	Elon	1-0	0-0	−4.9	104.5	109.5	183
7	Campbell	0-1	0-0	−5.1	101.9	107.0	187
8	William & Mary	1-0	0-0	−6.9	101.4	108.3	215
9	Drexel	0-1	0-0	−7.3	98.6	105.9	222
10	Northeastern	0-1	0-0	−8.7	103.9	112.5	241
11	Stony Brook	1-0	0-0	−9.3	100.4	109.7	248
12	Hampton	0-1	0-0	−11.1	96.7	107.7	273
13	North Carolina A&T	0-0	0-0	−12.6	98.5	111.1	287