William & Mary Tribe
Next: vs Norfolk St · Sun 8 Nov, 6 PM ETProjected 83-71 · Game page
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−6.9Rank 215 of 365 · offence 210, defence 218
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (10 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Bridgewaternot Division I | Home | — | — | W 80-66 | |
| Sun 8 Nov6 PM ET | vs Norfolk Staterank 327 | Home | 83% | 83-71 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Florida Atlanticrank 124 | Away | 20% | 72-82 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Norfolk StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Florida AtlanticA win: 6% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Carter Jr.F | 1 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| ZZ ClarkG · transfer from Santa Barbara | 1 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Josh BaldwinG · transfer from Cornell | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.9 |
| Gavin WardG | 1 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Ethan ConneryG | 1 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| John Roland Jr.F | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Will FeaglesG | 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Jesse McIntoshG · transfer from South Dakota | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Stas SivkaF · transfer from George Mason | 1 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Nilavan DanielsG · transfer from Providence | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Tre BlassingameG · transfer from Idaho | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.1%rank 148 | 50.1%rank 155 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 158 | 18.5%rank 136 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 132 | 31.7%rank 172 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.6%rank 135 | 25.6%rank 161 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.9
- Last season's net rating
- +2.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.4
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.3 (rank 210)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.2 (rank 218)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.4 (rank 10)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.7 | 105.2 | 130 |
| 2 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.2 | 103.9 | 105.1 | 137 |
| 3 | Towson | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 102.3 | 104.9 | 151 |
| 4 | Hofstra | 1-1 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 101.2 | 104.0 | 154 |
| 5 | Monmouth | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 100.6 | 104.3 | 165 |
| 6 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 104.3 | 109.4 | 184 |
| 7 | Campbell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 101.7 | 106.9 | 188 |
| 8 | William & Mary | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 101.3 | 108.2 | 215 |
| 9 | Drexel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 98.3 | 105.8 | 224 |
| 10 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 103.7 | 112.4 | 239 |
| 11 | Stony Brook | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 100.3 | 109.6 | 247 |
| 12 | Hampton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 96.5 | 107.6 | 274 |
| 13 | North Carolina A&T | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 98.4 | 111.0 | 284 |