Norfolk State Spartans

Men's · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at William & Mary · Sun 8 Nov, 6 PM ET

Norfolk St16%84%William & Mary

Projected 71-83 · Game page

Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19

Net rating−16.2Rank 330 of 365 · offence 316, defence 320

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-19 (10 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 13%
Average seed if in the field: 15.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field13%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Regentnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 68-45
Wed 4 Nov	vs Randolphnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 78-71
Sun 8 Nov6 PM ET	at William & Maryrank 215	Away	16%	71-83	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Old Dominionrank 220	Home	41%	72-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 13% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at William & MaryA win: 12% · a loss: 13%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Old DominionA win: 13% · a loss: 12%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Bahsil LasterG · transfer from UT Arlington	2	32.0	19.0	5.0	4.0	−1.8	+0.2
Justin JonesG	2	27.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.6
Jordan SkyersG	2	24.0	16.5	2.5	2.0	−2.8	−0.3
Chris WalkerG	2	23.5	12.0	4.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.4
Keon MitchellG	2	22.5	5.0	0.5	3.0	−3.0	−0.4
Jamese JordanC	2	19.5	5.0	4.5	0.5	−2.8	−0.3
J.C. Riley Jr.F · transfer from N'Western St	2	18.0	7.0	6.5	0.0	−3.0	−0.3
Dramane CamaraG	2	17.5	6.0	4.5	1.0	−5.6	−1.1
Ahmad TorrenceG	2	16.0	1.0	3.0	0.5	−5.6	−1.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −16.2
Last season's net rating: −14.4
Last season's minutes returning: 7%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.2 (rank 316)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 112.4 (rank 320)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.9 (rank 108)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Howard	0-1	0-0	−6.5	100.9	107.5	210
2	Norfolk State	2-0	0-0	−16.2	96.2	112.4	330
3	Maryland Eastern Shore	0-2	0-0	−18.2	91.6	109.9	337
4	South Carolina State	1-0	0-0	−18.5	94.2	112.7	341
5	North Carolina Central	0-1	0-0	−20.1	92.8	113.0	350
6	Delaware State	1-0	0-0	−21.2	91.8	113.0	353
7	Morgan State	2-0	0-0	−22.6	93.6	116.3	360
8	Coppin State	0-1	0-0	−23.5	90.1	113.6	362