Florida Atlantic Owls
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15
Net rating−0.1Rank 127 of 365 · offence 163, defence 115
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-15 (13 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Long Island Universityrank 307 | Home | 90% | 76-60 | W 74-60 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Wright Staterank 124 | Away | 34% | 75-80 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs William & Maryrank 215 | Home | 80% | 82-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Wright StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%+1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs William & MaryA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanaan CarlyleG | 1 | 34.0 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | +1.7 | +2.3 |
| Felipe QuinonesG | 1 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −0.5 | +0.9 |
| Milhan CharlesG · transfer from AR-Pine Bluff | 1 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.3 |
| Josh HarrisF | 1 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 |
| Kieran MullenC · transfer from Pitt | 1 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 |
| Mason Porter-BrownF · transfer from Long Island | 1 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| Tacko IfaolaC | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| Braeden SpeedG · transfer from Loyola MD | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.9%rank 357 | 50.1%rank 129 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 86 | 18.6%rank 129 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.9%rank 339 | 29.5%rank 15 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.6%rank 60 | 25.1%rank 154 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +7.4 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +0.2
- Last season's net rating
- +4.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −6.6
- Change since preseason
- −0.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.6 (rank 163)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 103.8 (rank 115)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.5 (rank 51)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −14.2 (rank 244)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.6 | 108.8 | 99.3 | 80 |
| 2 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.7 | 109.6 | 100.9 | 85 |
| 3 | North Texas | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.2 | 106.7 | 100.5 | 98 |
| 4 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 108.6 | 103.0 | 101 |
| 5 | Florida Atlantic | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.1 | 103.6 | 103.8 | 127 |
| 6 | Temple | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 103.5 | 104.6 | 136 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 104.5 | 106.4 | 146 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 105.2 | 107.7 | 149 |
| 9 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.9 | 104.8 | 108.6 | 169 |
| 10 | UAB | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 105.7 | 109.8 | 170 |
| 11 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 102.7 | 107.9 | 188 |
| 12 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 100.9 | 107.9 | 216 |
| 13 | UTSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 98.1 | 113.2 | 315 |