South Florida Bulls

Men's · American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at DePaul · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

South Florida25%75%DePaul

Projected 71-79 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-12

Net rating+5.6Rank 101 of 365 · offence 92, defence 109

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (17 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 19%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 12.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field17%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Charleston Southernrank 259	Home	90%	80-64	W 98-71	Right
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	at DePaulrank 77	Away	25%	71-79	—
Wed 11 Nov3 PM ET	vs Saint Joseph'srank 122	Neutral	61%	79-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at DePaulA win: 18% · a loss: 16%+2 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Saint Joseph'sA win: 17% · a loss: 16%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sonny WilsonG · transfer from Toledo	1	31.0	19.0	0.0	6.0	+1.4	+1.9
Josh OmojafoG	1	26.0	14.0	6.0	1.0	+3.0	+2.4
Chris Davis Jr.G · transfer from Charleston	1	26.0	15.0	4.0	2.0	−0.4	+0.8
Mike JamesG · transfer from Vanderbilt	1	24.0	14.0	8.0	1.0	+0.6	+1.1
Zayden HighF · transfer from North Carolina	1	22.0	20.0	8.0	1.0	+3.3	+2.2
Andrej ShoshkikjG · transfer from Stony Brook	1	22.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	+0.6	+1.1
Garrett JohnsonF · transfer from G Washington	1	19.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.3
Tiefing DiawaraC · transfer from Syracuse	1	11.0	4.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	+0.4
Jake FeldhausF	1	11.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.2
Richard GoodsF · transfer from Stony Brook	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.1
Darren MooreG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	0.0
Jayden JohnsonG	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	0.0
Reph StevensonF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0
Donovan WaleskowskiG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 125	50.0%rank 118	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.5%rank 31	18.4%rank 223	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.5%rank 227	32.6%rank 288	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.9%rank 332	25.0%rank 146	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.3 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +4.6
Last season's net rating: +16.9
Last season's minutes returning: 13%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.1
Change since preseason: +1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.6 (rank 92)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 103.0 (rank 109)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.4 (rank 12)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.5 (rank 208)

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wichita State	1-0	0-0	+9.6	108.8	99.3	80
2	Memphis	1-0	0-0	+8.7	109.6	100.9	85
3	North Texas	2-0	0-0	+6.2	106.7	100.5	98
4	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+5.6	108.6	103.0	101
5	Florida Atlantic	1-0	0-0	−0.1	103.6	103.8	127
6	Temple	1-0	0-0	−1.1	103.5	104.6	136
7	Tulsa	1-0	0-0	−1.9	104.5	106.4	146
8	Charlotte	1-0	0-0	−2.5	105.2	107.7	149
9	Tulane	1-0	0-0	−3.9	104.8	108.6	169
10	UAB	0-1	0-0	−4.1	105.7	109.8	170
11	Rice	1-0	0-0	−5.2	102.7	107.9	188
12	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−7.0	100.9	107.9	216
13	UTSA	0-1	0-0	−15.2	98.1	113.2	315