DePaul Blue Demons

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs South Florida · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

South Florida25%75%DePaul

Projected 79-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-17

Net rating+10.0Rank 76 of 365 · offence 98, defence 41

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-17 (11 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.4
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field15%
Round of 326%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs West Georgiarank 319	Home	97%	80-56	W 75-58	Right
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs South Floridarank 101	Home	75%	79-71	Live
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	vs Alabama A&Mrank 339	Home	98%	85-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 15% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs South FloridaA win: 15% · a loss: 13%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Alabama A&MA win: 15% · a loss: 14%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Koree CottonG · transfer from UT Rio Grande	1	28.0	20.0	6.0	1.0	+3.1	+2.6
Noah MeeusenG · transfer from Arizona St	1	28.0	11.0	7.0	8.0	+1.0	+1.5
Layden BlockerG	1	27.0	2.0	5.0	3.0	+1.4	+1.7
Magoon GwathF · transfer from San Diego St	1	27.0	19.0	6.0	1.0	+3.7	+2.8
Ade PopoolaG · transfer from Tulsa	1	25.0	12.0	6.0	0.0	+2.4	+2.0
Kruz McClureG	1	24.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.7
Fabian FloresC	1	19.0	6.0	7.0	1.0	+2.4	+1.5
Kahmare HolmesG · transfer from Wofford	1	17.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+2.4	+1.4
Wilson JacquesC · transfer from Fresno St	1	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+2.6	+0.2
Noah SmithG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0
Nate KasherG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.8%rank 329	49.4%rank 70	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.4%rank 135	17.7%rank 320	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.4%rank 355	31.0%rank 90	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.6%rank 36	22.1%rank 10	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.1 points a game (they shot 32.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.1
Last season's net rating: +6.7
Last season's minutes returning: 35%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.6
Change since preseason: −0.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.7 (rank 98)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.7 (rank 41)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.0 (rank 223)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.3 (rank 255)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.7	91.2	13
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.1	91.8	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.7	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.2	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	114.0	97.0	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.3	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.5	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	110.0	99.1	70
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.7	97.7	76
10	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	83
11	Seton Hall	2-0	0-0	+6.8	104.0	97.2	93