UConn Huskies

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Michigan · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

UConn40%60%Michigan

Projected 73-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament89%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.5

Wins the national title2%Final Four 10% · projected 25-10

Net rating+24.4Rank 12 of 365 · offence 28, defence 7

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-10 (20 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 46%
Wins the conference tournament: 32%
Average seed if in the field: 4.5
A 1 seed: 9%

Makes the field89%
Round of 3276%
Sweet 1644%
Elite Eight22%
Final Four10%
Title game4%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Gardner-Webbrank 345	Home	100%	85-50	W 86-46	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Michiganrank 6	Neutral	40%	73-76	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Wagnerrank 342	Home	100%	88-51	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 89% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs MichiganA win: 91% · a loss: 88%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jayden RossF	1	29.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+5.4	+3.8
Silas Demary Jr.G	1	26.0	5.0	8.0	8.0	+8.0	+4.6
Nik KhameniaF · transfer from Duke	1	26.0	14.0	6.0	3.0	+6.1	+3.7
Braylon MullinsG	1	25.0	20.0	2.0	1.0	+6.2	+3.6
Colben LandrewF	1	22.0	11.0	5.0	3.0	+0.6	+1.0
Na'jai HinesC · transfer from Seton Hall	1	22.0	12.0	12.0	1.0	+7.1	+3.5
Junior CountyG	1	17.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.8
Oskar GiltayC · transfer from Stanford	1	17.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	+5.0	+2.1
Nils MachowskiG · transfer from Wofford	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	+3.0	+0.5
Egor AmosovF	1	5.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.3
Jacob RossF	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1
Isaiah ShawF · transfer from N Arizona	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.1
Jaye NashG · transfer from Jax State	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.1
Elmir DzaficC · transfer from Arkansas	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+3.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.0%rank 95	48.5%rank 27	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 98	19.0%rank 88	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.5%rank 310	28.4%rank 3	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.6%rank 255	26.9%rank 314	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.4 points a game (they shot 31.6%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +22.9
Last season's net rating: +29.2
Last season's minutes returning: 47%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.1
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 115.6 (rank 28)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.2 (rank 7)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.1 (rank 317)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −19.6 (rank 274)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.8	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.1	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.3	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.5	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	110.0	99.1	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+9.9	107.6	97.7	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.7	111.1	102.3	84