Villanova Wildcats
Next: vs Holy Cross · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 91-58 · Game page
Makes the tournament46%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.2
Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 20-13
Net rating+17.0Rank 36 of 365 · offence 47, defence 34
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 8%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 7.2
- A 1 seed
- <1%
- Makes the field46%
- Round of 3229%
- Sweet 1610%
- Elite Eight4%
- Final Four1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion<1%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | vs Notre Damerank 58 | Neutral | 66% | 77-72 | L 72-74 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Holy Crossrank 348 | Home | 100% | 91-58 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs La Sallerank 200 | Home | 97% | 85-63 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: vs La SalleA win: 46% · a loss: 42%+4 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.4%rank 70 | 49.0%rank 47 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.2%rank 349 | 18.0%rank 287 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.0%rank 113 | 33.1%rank 308 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.3%rank 213 | 26.0%rank 273 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.8 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +18.5
- Last season's net rating
- +19.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 27%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +5.4
- Change since preseason
- −1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 114.0 (rank 47)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 97.0 (rank 34)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.8 (rank 246)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +13.2 (rank 57)
Big East Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UConn | 1-0 | 0-0 | +24.4 | 115.7 | 91.2 | 13 |
| 2 | St. John's | 1-0 | 0-0 | +21.3 | 113.1 | 91.8 | 22 |
| 3 | Marquette | 1-0 | 0-0 | +20.2 | 114.8 | 94.7 | 29 |
| 4 | Xavier | 1-0 | 0-0 | +18.2 | 114.2 | 96.0 | 33 |
| 5 | Villanova | 0-1 | 0-0 | +17.0 | 114.0 | 97.0 | 36 |
| 6 | Creighton | 1-0 | 0-0 | +15.2 | 112.5 | 97.3 | 50 |
| 7 | Providence | 1-0 | 0-0 | +11.8 | 111.5 | 99.7 | 66 |
| 8 | Georgetown | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.9 | 110.0 | 99.1 | 70 |
| 9 | DePaul | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.0 | 107.7 | 97.7 | 76 |
| 10 | Butler | 2-0 | 0-0 | +8.8 | 111.1 | 102.3 | 83 |
| 11 | Seton Hall | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.8 | 104.0 | 97.2 | 93 |