Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Mercyhurst · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Mercyhurst1%99%Notre Dame

Projected 86-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament28%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 20-12

Net rating+13.2Rank 58 of 365 · offence 66, defence 52

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-12 (15 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field28%
Round of 3213%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Sun 1 Nov	vs Villanovarank 36	Neutral	34%	72-77	W 74-72	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Mercyhurstrank 335	Home	99%	86-58	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Eastern Illinoisrank 328	Home	99%	86-59	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs South Carolina Staterank 341	Home	99%	89-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 28% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs MercyhurstA win: 28% · a loss: 28%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Eastern IllinoisA win: 28% · a loss: 29%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs South Carolina StateA win: 28% · a loss: 30%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 321	51.4%rank 296	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 76	20.2%rank 18	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.0%rank 54	31.9%rank 252	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.9%rank 90	25.2%rank 150	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.9 points a game (they shot 35.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.7
Last season's net rating: +8.6
Last season's minutes returning: 34%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.6
Change since preseason: +1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.7 (rank 66)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.5 (rank 52)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 219)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +17.0 (rank 35)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109