Boston College Eagles

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UMass · Fri 6 Nov, 4 PM ET

UMass37%63%Boston College

Projected 75-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18

Net rating+3.9Rank 109 of 365 · offence 128, defence 95

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (11 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Wagnerrank 342	Home	95%	82-61	W 76-50	Right
Fri 6 Nov4 PM ET	vs Massachusettsrank 134	Neutral	63%	75-71	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Maryland Eastern Shorerank 337	Home	96%	78-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs MassachusettsA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Maryland Eastern ShoreA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Money WilliamsG · transfer from Montana	1	37.0	22.0	5.0	4.0	+2.6	+3.1
Zak SmrekarG	1	37.0	12.0	4.0	3.0	−1.1	+0.6
Ernest SheltonG · transfer from Merrimack	1	35.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.6
Armoni ZeiglerG · transfer from Ball State	1	29.0	14.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1
Brandon BenjaminF · transfer from Fairfield	1	21.0	8.0	10.0	1.0	+2.9	+1.8
Luke HungerF · transfer from G Washington	1	19.0	9.0	5.0	0.0	+2.3	+1.4
Colby DugganF · transfer from Charleston	1	15.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.4
JB FrankelG · transfer from Northeastern	1	7.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 129	48.4%rank 25	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.7%rank 241	18.4%rank 235	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.3%rank 323	32.2%rank 265	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.5%rank 65	25.4%rank 246	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.5 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.0
Last season's net rating: +1.4
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.9
Change since preseason: +0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.4 (rank 128)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.5 (rank 95)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 279)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.8 (rank 270)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109