Miami Hurricanes

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Wagner · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Wagner0%100%Miami

Projected 90-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament71%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.8

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 3% · projected 23-9

Net rating+20.1Rank 31 of 365 · offence 26, defence 28

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-9 (19 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 7%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 6.8
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field71%
Round of 3249%
Sweet 1620%
Elite Eight8%
Final Four3%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Floridarank 2	Neutral	15%	66-79	L 67-77	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Wagnerrank 342	Home	100%	90-55	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs North Floridarank 275	Home	99%	92-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 71% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs North FloridaA win: 71% · a loss: 71%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Acaden LewisG · transfer from Villanova	1	36.0	24.0	4.0	1.0	+4.6	+4.3
Shelton HendersonF	1	32.0	7.0	9.0	0.0	+4.2	+3.6
Somto CyrilC · transfer from Georgia	1	28.0	13.0	7.0	1.0	+5.9	+4.0
Malik ReneauF	1	23.0	5.0	4.0	1.0	+6.9	+3.7
Dante AllenG	1	22.0	3.0	4.0	3.0	+2.7	+1.9
Robert Miller IIIF · transfer from LSU	1	17.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+4.0	+1.8
Caleb GaskinsF	1	15.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.4
Brent BlandG · transfer from Saint Peter's	1	13.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+1.9	+0.9
Nick DornG · transfer from Indiana	1	12.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+2.9	+1.1
Egor RyzhovC	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.4%rank 345	50.9%rank 264	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 74	18.3%rank 247	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.2%rank 253	31.7%rank 157	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.8%rank 55	27.1%rank 319	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.8 points a game (they shot 42.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +4.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.3
Last season's net rating: +20.8
Last season's minutes returning: 42%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.8
Change since preseason: +1.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 116.0 (rank 26)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.9 (rank 28)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.4 (rank 185)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +32.8 (rank 2)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109