Louisville Cardinals

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Morehead St · Sat 7 Nov, 12 PM ET

Morehead St0%100%Louisville

Projected 92-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament79%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.5

Wins the national title1%Final Four 5% · projected 22-9

Net rating+21.8Rank 18 of 365 · offence 22, defence 23

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-9 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 5.5
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field79%
Round of 3261%
Sweet 1630%
Elite Eight13%
Final Four5%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Chattanoogarank 228	Home	99%	86-55	W 84-70	Right
Sat 7 Nov12 PM ET	vs Morehead Staterank 302	Home	100%	92-60	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 79% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Alvaro FolgueirasF · transfer from Iowa	1	34.0	10.0	4.0	3.0	+5.7	+4.8
Jackson ShelstadG · transfer from Oregon	1	32.0	13.0	7.0	3.0	+2.5	+2.6
Adrian WooleyG	1	28.0	15.0	3.0	3.0	+4.7	+3.4
Flory BidungaF · transfer from Kansas	1	27.0	16.0	9.0	1.0	+8.2	+5.0
Seth TrimbleG · transfer from North Carolina	1	26.0	13.0	3.0	5.0	+5.0	+3.3
Karter KnoxG · transfer from Arkansas	1	21.0	9.0	11.0	1.0	+4.0	+2.3
Isaac EllisG	1	14.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.5
LJ WellsF · transfer from N Kentucky	1	9.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+3.6	+0.9
Obinna Ekezie Jr.C	1	9.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.5%rank 287	51.9%rank 320	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 109	19.2%rank 57	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.6%rank 75	32.2%rank 267	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.0%rank 289	23.9%rank 72	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.0 points a game (they shot 36.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.7
Last season's net rating: +26.2
Last season's minutes returning: 11%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +13.2
Change since preseason: −1.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.0 (rank 22)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.2 (rank 23)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 62)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.8 (rank 187)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109