Virginia Cavaliers

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Northeastern · Fri 6 Nov, 5 PM ET

Northeastern1%99%Virginia

Projected 92-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament73%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 3% · projected 23-10

Net rating+20.2Rank 28 of 365 · offence 30, defence 21

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 6.0
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field73%
Round of 3253%
Sweet 1624%
Elite Eight9%
Final Four3%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Drexelrank 224	Home	97%	84-60	W 89-60	Right
Fri 6 Nov5 PM ET	vs Northeasternrank 241	Home	99%	92-64	—
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Arkansasrank 26	Neutral	48%	78-78	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Bucknellrank 331	Home	100%	91-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 73% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs NortheasternA win: 73% · a loss: 70%+3 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs ArkansasA win: 77% · a loss: 69%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Johann GrunlohC	1	29.0	11.0	9.0	1.0	+6.5	+4.4
Sam LewisG	1	27.0	20.0	4.0	3.0	+5.0	+3.4
Thijs De RidderF	1	27.0	24.0	9.0	1.0	+7.2	+4.5
Chance MalloryG	1	22.0	8.0	3.0	3.0	+6.7	+3.4
Nolan AdekunleF	1	20.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7
Elijah GertrudeG	1	15.0	8.0	4.0	2.0	+3.0	+1.3
Kalu AnyaF	1	15.0	2.0	1.0	3.0	+0.1	+0.6
Jurian DixonG · transfer from UC Irvine	1	12.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+3.3	+1.1
Martin CarrereG	1	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+2.6	+0.7
Jan VideG · transfer from LMU	1	7.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	+2.0	+0.5
Christian HarmonG · transfer from Arkansas St	1	7.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+2.5	+0.6
Favour IbeC	1	6.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.3
Silas BarksdaleF	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 212	50.6%rank 246	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.9%rank 276	19.7%rank 26	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 240	30.3%rank 44	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.2%rank 285	23.4%rank 45	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.2 points a game (they shot 32.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.2
Last season's net rating: +25.9
Last season's minutes returning: 51%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.0
Change since preseason: +1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 115.1 (rank 30)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.9 (rank 21)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 210)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.4 (rank 188)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	122.0	88.5	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+22.2	116.7	94.5	17
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.1	94.9	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.1	96.0	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.8	98.2	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.5	99.8	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	114.0	99.7	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.8	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.6	99.9	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.5	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	111.0	100.3	72
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.5	101.3	75
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.1	99.5	77
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	108.0	100.4	86
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.2	98.6	87
16	Wake Forest	1-1	0-0	+6.8	107.1	100.3	94
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.2	102.7	106
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.5	101.6	110